Thursday, 5th January, 2023
1/ Energy Holds the Line
The energy sector gained today as the majority of the market succumbed to renewed selling pressure. Its relative strength comes as no surprise, as energy sat atop the leaderboard throughout 2022.
2/ Buying European Banks
European financials (EUFN) have been among the best-performing industry groups over the past three months. As you can see, price recently reclaimed a critical level of interest and is pushing against six-month highs.
We monitor this group closely, as these stocks provide vital information on global risk. If EUFN presses higher, it’s hard for us to entertain a bearish thesis for stocks. As long as investors are buying European financials, we could be entering an environment where the broad market manages to weather bouts of selling pressure.
3/ It’s Time to Look Overseas
Although international stocks have consistently underperformed their U.S. counterparts for over a decade, there is evidence that this may be changing.
With some progress in global equities as of late, we are watching for a potential reversal in the relative trend that favors international stocks in the near term. A trend reversal in this ratio also favors cyclical stocks more broadly, as relative strength from international markets highlights the benefits of reduced exposure to tech stocks.
4/ The Pound Drops
The U.S. dollar is off to a good start in 2023, with major peer currencies feeling the pressure. This is particularly true for the British pound (GBP), which is currently trading below a critical shelf of former lows at approximately $1.1963.
If the bulls fail to defend this level soon, we could witness downside follow-through in the pound. A sustained breakdown from current levels could create a favorable scenario for the dollar, and by default, stock market bears.
On the other hand, if the pound manages to reclaim former multi-year support, risk assets could receive a reprieve from today’s renewed selling pressure. In its current position, the pound now represents downside risk as it drops below a crucial support level.
Originally posted on 5th January 2023
Investopedia.com: The comments, opinions and analyses expressed herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. While we believe the information provided herein is reliable, we do not warrant its accuracy or completeness. The views and strategies described on our content may not be suitable for all investors. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, all comments, opinions and analyses contained within our content are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy. This information is intended for US residents only.
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from Investopedia and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Investopedia and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Any discussion or mention of an ETF is not to be construed as recommendation, promotion or solicitation. All investors should review and consider associated investment risks, charges and expenses of the investment company or fund prior to investing. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in foreign exchange trading. The settlement date of foreign exchange trades can vary due to time zone differences and bank holidays. When trading across foreign exchange markets, this may necessitate borrowing funds to settle foreign exchange trades. The interest rate on borrowed funds must be considered when computing the cost of trades across multiple markets.