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Yield Curve Inversion Marks Two Years. What Happens Now?

Yield Curve Inversion Marks Two Years. What Happens Now?

Posted July 11, 2024 at 10:00 am
Jim Iuorio
CME Group

The U.S. treasury yield curve has been in inversion territory since July 2022. Historically, such inversions have reliably forecasted upcoming recessions. Is this time different? Jim Iuorio, with TJM Institutional Services, says, “Although the length and depth of the inversion doesn’t correlate with the length or depth of the recession, it correlates with the likelihood that the recession occurs.”

Originally Posted July 9, 2024

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2 thoughts on “Yield Curve Inversion Marks Two Years. What Happens Now?”

  • BigAl

    The abundance of uncontrolled private equity cash has neutralized the effects of the inversion. Until someone gets burned = no worries, Mate.

  • Peter Low

    US being the leading economy besides China, I prefer to look at some areas to start with if the US is in recession or in a bubble. 1. The S&P is now at all time as at the close of trading on 12 July 2024. 2. Is the property prices at all time high, versus China? We all know China properties already belly up if not the effective cover up by the communist. 3. Is US total money supply at all time high since the bull market began in 2009/2010? 4. How high is the American government debts now versus the last global financial crisis in 2007-08? We all know is definitely much higher. 5. Is Private credit at its all time high compared to say 10-15 years ago? 6. Has the purchasing power of the USD remained at the trough? If all the answers were yes to all of the above, then the US economy is due for a downturn and the stock market is heading for a correction. How major the correction only time can tell. I believe the US stock market on average has run ahead of its key fundamentals, the U.S. can never rebalance their balance sheet without going into a recession.

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