Chart Advisor: Supply Hits the S&P 500

Articles From: Investopedia
Website: Investopedia

By J.C. Parets & All Star Charts

1/ Supply Hits the S&P 500

2/ Warren Buffett Keeps Winning

3/ Intermarket Ratios Suggest Lower Yields

4/ It’s Not the Time to Cut Sugar

Investopedia is partnering with All Star Charts on this newsletter, which both sells its research to investors, and may trade or hold positions in securities mentioned herein. The contents of this newsletter are for informational and educational purposes only, however, and do not constitute investing advice.

1/ Supply Hits the S&P 500

It’s been a relatively quiet week for the major U.S. equity averages and individual market sectors. After a solid rebound off the March lows, we’re now seeing prices move sideways as stocks digest gains.

When we look at a chart of the S&P 500 (SPX), it makes sense for this type of price behavior to occur at this level. Here is a daily chart of SPX running into resistance at its pivot highs from February:

Source: All Star Charts, with data provided by Optuma

This zone near 4,175 corresponds with several price peaks since last year. It acted as support before being violated in the first quarter of 2022. Outside of a few weeks last summer, it has kept a cap on the S&P 500, acting as a clear level of overhead supply.

The more times support or resistance is tested, the more likely it is to break. If we include the failed move from last August, this is now the fourth test of the 4,170 level.

It could only be a matter of time until the bulls absorb all the overhead supply and force an upside resolution. If and when that happens, it would mark the completion of a bearish-to-bullish reversal for one of the most important stock market benchmarks.

2/ Warren Buffett Keeps Winning

When we analyze individual stocks, we always check how the largest and most important components are performing because it gives us insight about the market’s future direction, or at least the direction of cap-weighted major averages.

Today, we’re showcasing Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), which just resolved higher from a multi-month base to its highest level in almost a year:

Source: All Star Charts, with data provided by Optuma

Due to its heavy weighting in the financial sector and broad indexes, as well as the diversified nature of its business holdings, we often treat BRK as its own index. We’ve highlighted $320 as a critical level to watch for. Above it, risk could be to the upside.

Seeing this bellwether stock break out and push toward new highs is constructive for the overall stock market. It also bodes particularly well for financials.

3/ Intermarket Ratios Suggest Lower Yields

Indecisive, rangebound trading persists throughout the bond market.

Like inflation expectations, yields refuse to roll over. We’re already halfway through the second quarter, and the 10-year Treasury yield holds near the same levels it did last June.

Despite this, key intermarket ratios and cyclical assets keep hinting toward lower yields. The ratio chart of the small-cap value ETF (IWN) and small-cap growth ETF (IWO) presents an excellent example:

Source: All Star Charts, with data provided by Optuma

The IWN/IWO ratio peaked last spring along with most inflationary assets—including commodities—while the 10-year yield went on to make a higher high in late October.

Fast forward to today, and small-cap value stocks are breaking down to fresh 52-week lows relative to their small-cap growth peers. This is not the kind of behavior we would expect to see in a rising interest rate environment.

We can add this ratio to our growing list of charts suggesting lower rates could be on the horizon.

4/ It’s Not the Time to Cut Sugar

Sugar broke to fresh decade highs today as the uptrend persists for one of the sweetest raw materials on the global commodity market.

We’ve highlighted this chart numerous times over the past six months. Tight consolidations with bullish momentum profiles tend to produce significant rallies, as has been the case with sugar futures recently.

But today, our focus is the completion of a bull flag:

Source: All Star Charts, with data provided by Optuma

These short-term continuation patterns tend to last no more than a few weeks and often result in explosive upside resolutions. That’s what we witnessed during today’s session.

If the pattern turns out to be a half-mast flag, then a logical target could be applied by measuring the preceding rally to the peak of the flag and applying that distance to the pivot low of the pattern upward.

Regardless of the price target, the path of least resistance could be even higher for sugar.

Originally posted 20th April 2023

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