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There isn’t a great deal of conviction ahead of today’s open. The S&P 500 futures are up three points and are trading fractionally above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down five points and are trading fractionally below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 19 points and are trading fractionally above fair value.
Translation: things are looking pretty flat for the major indices when the opening bell rings. That could change between now and the opening bell, but at the moment it is clear that buyers and sellers are sticking close to the sidelines insomuch as it relates to their index-level interest.
Conviction has been reserved for individual stocks like Moderna (MRNA), which is down 5.1% on the news that its first influenza candidate “did not accrue sufficient cases at the interim efficacy analysis to declare early success,” and CarMax (KMX), which is up 5.6% after posting better-than-expected fiscal Q4 earnings results.
It’s a bit of a patchwork market when it comes to attention-grabbing news items.
Bitcoin prices are back above $30,000 for the first time since June; Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is increasing its stake in five Japanese trading houses, according to CNBC; China’s March CPI was up 0.7% yr/yr, versus up 1.0% in February, which was the lowest since September 2021; and New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) expects inflation pressures to cool gradually and for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.0-4.5%, according to Reuters.
There is enough to talk about but there isn’t enough for the stock market to crow about as a broad market driver.
That kind of driver it seems is waiting in the wings. Tomorrow will feature the March Consumer Price Index, so the chatter this morning — and yesterday for that matter — is that market participants are adopting a wait-and-see stance in front of that report and the earnings reports from several major banks on Friday.
Elsewhere, the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.39%, oil prices are up 0.1% to $79.82 per barrel, and the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.4% to 102.13.
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Originally Posted April 11, 2023 – Conviction lacking on patchwork news drivers
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