Market Activity
– Economic data in focus this week, Nonfarm Payroll due Friday. Check out our weekly Top Three Things to Watch this Week.
– China on holiday, Golden Week, through Thursday
– OPEC+ meeting in focus. The cartel is adding 400,000 bpd each month through next September. They are expected to stay the course, not adding further barrels despite Brent at $80. They are also expected to signal the ongoing fragility of the market and the potential of a surplus in first half next year.
– Breaking News: OPEC+ ended meeting almost immediately and stuck with prearranged production plans. Crude Oil traded above $77, highest since November 2014.
– Congress is on the hot seat. Two weeks to raise the debt ceiling or the U.S. faces default, weighs on sentiment. Potential progress on less infrastructure?
– China’s Evergrande saga drags out, weighs on sentiment.
– U.S.-China trade remains lukewarm at best; weighs on sentiment
– Supply chain concerns are mounting ahead of the holiday season, weighs on sentiment
– Tesla says what supply chain issues. Stock up 2.5% premarket on strong deliveries.
– Facebook in the spotlight; potentially could weigh on sentiment.
– U.S. Dollar Index is down, helping to buoy risk-assets.
– Factory Orders due at 9:00 am CT
E-mini S&P (December) / NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4343.75, up 46.00
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 14,761.75, up 79.25
– Bullish wave Friday played out; new quarter, new month, fresh start.
– Rally through last night stalled at major three-star resistance in both S&P and NQ; 4366-4373 and 14,807-14,829.
– Pivots align with our momentum indicators create a point of balance on the session; bulls must defend here through first hour.
– Shelf in S&P built at 4308.50-4312.75 ahead of Friday afternoon; break below here would encourage added selling
– Rare major four-star support stands at 4275.25-4293.75; close below here bearish.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 4340-4343.75**, 4366-4373***, 4399.75***
Crude Oil (November)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 75.88, up 0.85
– We remain Bullish in Bias; strong close today post-OPEC+ could be a driving factor to $80 quickly
– Very healthy technical setup; bullish pennant on daily and inverse head and shoulders seen intraday through last week.
– High of the year is at 76.98.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 76.98***, 80.00***
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1758.4, up 1.4
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22.536, up 0.489
– Early weakness in precious metals is rebounding on U.S. Dollar weakness
– We remain Bullish in Bias but must see continued construction.
– China Golden Week can bring a softness to precious metals, though may prove to be a buy opportunity for strength in the week following. China back on Friday.
– Low of the morning so far held first key support in Gold.
– More critically, low in Silver held major three-star support in Silver at 22.02-22.35; close below negative and encourages selling.
– Positive settlements needed today to power through trend line resistance.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 1768-1770**, 1777**, 1782.8-1784***
Pivot: 1756-1758 Support: Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
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Originally Posted on October 4, 2021 – Crosswinds, OPEC+, and China
The support and resistance levels are created through our systematic and proprietary technical analysis and ranked by significance from 1 to 4 stars (****). 1-2 star levels are typically best focused on intraday or early in a session to help confirm momentum. 3-4 star levels are used to define a floor or ceiling in a market, a move and close above or below could signal a breakout or breakdown.
Our bias is our outlook for the underlying market, with 7 separate rankings from outright bullish to outright bearish.
Bullish – Outright bullish
Bullish/Neutral – Bullish the market but there may be technical/fundamental headwinds around the corner
Neutral/Bullish – relatively upbeat from a cautious standpoint
Neutral
Neutral/Bearish – relatively downbeat from a cautious standpoint
Bearish/Neutral- Bearish the market but there may be technical/fundamental headwinds around the corner
Bearish – Outright bearish
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