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Here’s How Betting Odds Changed, Financial Markets Fared Following First Presidential Debate As Biden Fumbles Handing Trump The Edge

Posted June 28, 2024 at 9:45 am
Shanthi Rexaline
Benzinga

The first presidential debate held in CNN’s studio in Atlanta Thursday night proved to be a disaster for the Democratic camp as President Joe Biden struggled through the event, meandering and mumbling through his answers. Betting odds of a Donald Trump victory surged up amid the debate, and the financial markets reacted positively to the prospect of a second term for the former president.

The Debate: 

Throughout the 90 minutes of the debate, Biden’s responses to the moderators’ questions were halting. The president was not able to effectively counter Trump’s attacks and unsubstantiated claims. His voice was hoarse and his speech was interspersed with awkward pauses.

The president did gain some ground toward the end of the debate when he took on his rival for the latter’s lack of democratic credentials but it was not enough to cover his poor performance through the televised debate.

Biden’s disappointing showing relegated every issue the two presumptive candidates contested to the backseat and the topic of discussion meandered back to his mental acuity and his ability to shepherd the country for a second time.

Trump Odds Spike: 

The odds of a Trump victory spiked in betting sites. Betting odds on Smarkets, a website that allows one to place bets on election outcomes, showed the former president’s chances of a victory increased notably to about 59%, while his successor’s plummeted to 20.4%. California Democratic Gavin Newsom received a little over 9% support.

Incidentally, a New York Times report said following the debate fiasco, the Democratic Party is scrambling to bring in a replacement for Biden. Newsom, however, shrugged off the talks in an interview with MSNBC by stating “You don’t turn your back because of one performance. What kind of party does that?”

“This president has delivered. We need to deliver for him at this moment,” he reportedly said.

Markets Mostly Positive: 

A Trump victory is seen as positive by the markets, and they promptly reacted with a move to the upside in overnight trading. The S&P 500 futures climbed amid the debate, although they have trimmed their gains since then. Nevertheless, they were holding modestly higher.

At last check, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were up 0.20% and 0.34%, respectively, while the Dow futures fell modestly.

Most major Asian markets advanced following the U.S. presidential debate. The Japanese Nikkei 224 average was up moderately and the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index gained over 1%. Less hawkish comments on China emerging from the debate may have supported the regional market.

In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar advanced against most of its major pairs, including the yen and the euro. The dollar index, which measures the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, was up 0.15% at last check.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield, which fell about 1% and closed under 4.30% on Thursday, ticked up 0.60%.

The positive reaction of the market is due to the deregulation policy Trump promises. “Trump is largely seen as the best candidate for the markets because of his deregulation agenda,” said BTIG policy research director Isaac Boltansky in an earlier interview with Yahoo Finance. But anti-Trumpers point out the risk of the former president’s tariff regime potentially setting off a trade war.

The S&P 500 Index ended Thursday’s session up 0.16% at $546.37, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Originally Posted June 28, 2024 – Here’s How Betting Odds Changed, Financial Markets Fared Following First Presidential Debate As Biden Fumbles Handing Trump The Edge

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