An Excursion Into ETFs

Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) are publicly listed investment vehicles that allow market participants to trade a basket of stocks in a single security. These are funds built by issuers to track certain flavors of the market. There are ETFs to replicate returns of equity indices such as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), single sectors like the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE), and different asset classes e.g., iShares IBOXX High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG).

Investors may buy or sell ETFs as part of a multi-leg position or to hedge exposure in their portfolio. If a proprietary trading firm is long a basket of select regional bank stocks, they can short the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE). KRE is built to replicate the S&P Regional Banks Index. The fund’s mandate is to match index returns 1:1, ad infinitum. Shorting the ETF can hedge exposure to the overall state of the regional banking sector while expressing a view on individual bank stocks.  

That’s a fairly vanilla use-case to buy or sell an ETF.

There are other, maybe more interesting trades baked into different types of ETFs. All these funds have a Tracking Error, which is the performance range where returns may deviate (positive or negative) from the target benchmark. If the S&P Regional Banks Index returns 10% in Year 1, KRE might return 9.90%. The 10 basis point difference is KRE’s tracking error. ETFs have trading costs and management fees that create a drag on returns. Indices have no assets and no expenses.  Another contributor to tracking error is an issuer being unable to exactly match the index’s components by trading in actual markets. It is possible an issuer cannot match the exact positions and their weights in the exact proportion as the index. These differences can cause tracking error over time.

Leveraged and inverse ETFs exhibit similar traits due to more complex mechanics.

Leveraged ETFs are meant to provide daily exposure to the target but are able to be held over time. Over a time horizon longer than one day, these speculative products’ return can be multiple standard deviations away from the benchmark. IBKR clients need to have the Complex and Leveraged Products trading permission to buy or sell leveraged ETFs.

Leveraged funds which aim to match a daily return are composed of derivative contracts and need to be rebalanced daily. The need for frequent trading and the high costs of trading derivatives (they are higher than stocks) manifest in an increased expense ratio, which negatively affects the ETF’s Net Asset Value (NAV).

Another drag on returns is beta decay.  A leveraged ETF’s built-in, high volatility leads to wide price swings, after which it’s harder for the share price to recover to previous levels. 

An example of beta decay is below.

On Day 1, stock XYZ drops 10%, from $100 to $90 per share and a 3X leveraged ETF which tracks this stock drops 30% from $100 to $70.

On Day 2, XYZ pops 10% from $90 to $99. The 3X ETF’s price will increase 30%, from $70 to $91.

The underlying stock is now $99, down 1% from Day 1’s price of $100 per share.  However, the ETF is trading at $91 per share, down 9% from its starting price of $100

An example of beta decay is evident in Direxion’s Daily TSLA Bull 1.5X Shares ETF (TSLL). The fund started trading on August 9, 2022. It seeks daily investment results 150% of the daily performance of Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA), before fees and expenses. TSLA returned -6% between listing date and the end of Q3 2022. Some might expect TSLL to return -9% during the same time period. But it did not, it returned -11%.

Traders can position to take advantage of these funds’ compositions. The same dynamics of high costs and beta decay that hurt long holders, can help short sellers who hold the positions over time. The benefits of shorting the leveraged ETF instead of the single stock for short sellers is that they not only pick up the multiplier, but also a combination of beta decay, high trading expenses and higher management fees. However, there are special risks with shorting leveraged ETFs that traders should be aware of.

Selling short doesn’t have to reflect bearish sentiment. Today, ETF issuers structure funds to profit in any market- up, down or sideways. Trader’s who are bullish on the NASDAQ-100 Total Return Index can short ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ), an inverse 3X leveraged ETF. By doing so, they would benefit from an upside move in the Nasdaq, while also capturing trading costs, beta decay and management fees.  Short sellers would pay borrow fees and receive short credit interest according to this schedule. 

Depending on how they’re positioned, traders stand to gain or lose from the attributes unique to leveraged and inverse products. Short sellers may be able to use them to generate excess returns versus an index. It’s important to understand all the components and characteristics involved in potential trade opportunities. The Securities Lending Desk at IBKR seeks to support clients who actively trade these products by sourcing Shortable Shares for borrow availability and stability.