Gold (GC) Tests 38.2% Fib Retrace of Mar Rally Ahead of FOMC
Gold (GC) slid more than 2% yesterday, completing what appears to be a Bearish Island Reversal (on the daily chart) after forming a fresh 2023 high Monday at upchannel resistance (on the daily and weekly chart). Within GC’s current consolidation back below triangle resistance (on the weekly chart), GC is beginning to firm near the 38.2% Fib retrace of the March rally. Nevertheless, GC bulls should be prepared for a moderate probability of breaking upchannel support (on the 4hr and daily chart) with today’s highly anticipated FOMC economic projections, statement, Federal Funds rate, and conference. Regardless of a moderate probability of a deeper slide to the 50% Fib of the March rally following Thursday’s US unemployment claims or Friday’s US Flash Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI, a retest of the psychologically key 2000 whole figure level before month end is roughly equally likely. GC is in the advanced stages of a Bull Flag consolidation since August 2020. Congratulations to paying subscribers who benefited from the Nov 2, 2022 analysis suggesting that GC was in the early stages of forming a major bottom. The weekly and daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains. I am looking to enter long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for Tuesday. The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter). Click here for analysis on SILVER, GBPUSD
Source: Interactive Brokers TWS
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