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The Consensus Path for S&P 500 is a “Broken W”

The Consensus Path for S&P 500 is a “Broken W”

Posted April 13, 2020 at 12:05 pm
Neil Azous
Rareview Macro

The below visualization captures the key talking points regarding the path of the S&P 500. This illustration highlights four things:

  1. The current short entry point;
  2. A recognition that professionals could (not will) be forced to chase higher prices (i.e., “pain trade”);
  3. That the S&P 500 could be in multi-hundred point range trade for months as Fed stimulus is offset by economic and EPS weakenss;
  4. A retest of the low after a “pain trade” higher would lead to the most suffering.
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