By J.C. Parets & All Star Charts
Tuesday, 11th April, 2023
1/ Bearish Positioning
2/ A (Micro)Strategy for BTC
3/ Breaking Even at Old Highs
4/ USD/ZAR Braces for a Breakout
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1/ Bearish Positioning#
Bearish sentiment is alive and well. It’s even showing up in positioning, with hedge funds holding their largest net short position for the E-mini S&P 500 futures since October 2011.
However, based on the historical record, extreme pessimism like this tends to coincide with significant trend reversals and market bottoms.
This doesn’t necessarily mean the S&P 500 will rip higher tomorrow or even next week, but the conditions could be set for a rally. And from the looks of the chart above, some hedge funds may be caught if and when it happens.
2/ A (Micro)Strategy for BTC
With the price of Bitcoin powering back above $30,000 for the first time since last June, we could make bullish bets on the space by buying cryptocurrencies, crypto stocks such as Coinbase, or any of the Bitcoin miners. There are also plenty of equity indexes we could use.
One of the more unique strategies for gaining exposure to Bitcoin is via Microstrategy (MSTR) shares. Here is a look at the daily chart:
Price is hitting its highest level since last summer and working up the right-hand side of a base as the 200-day moving average begins to curl higher.
While we’ve drawn resistance at the level with the most touch points, we would need to see price reclaim the August highs to confirm the completion of this reversal pattern.
With over 140,000 coins, Microstrategy’s Bitcoin holdings are now more valuable than the company itself, with a current market capitalization of $3.8 billion.
3/ Breaking Even at Old Highs
Ahead of the release of the March Consumer Price Index (CPI), inflation expectations and yields are at vulnerable levels. Tomorrow’s inflation data could be the catalyst for resolutions in some of these chart patterns.
Below is the 10-year breakeven inflation rate holding above prior cycle highs from 2018:
We use breakeven rates to give us a read on the market’s expectations for future inflation. As you can see, the 10-year breakeven has been coiling in a tight range above former resistance turned support for some time now.
After peaking last April, breakeven rates have been moving sideways as investors try to make sense of inflation data and forecast the Federal Reserve’s next move. As long as this chart remains above those 2018 highs, we don’t want to write off the chances for a rebound in inflation from here.
In contrast, a breach of the 2.17 level would indicate that the worst of rising prices could be behind us… at least for now.
4/ USD/ZAR Braces for a Breakout
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has lost significant ground over the trailing six months. But if the dollar manages to dig in and stage another rally, the U.S. dollar and South African rand pair (USD/ZAR) could be the first to print new all-time highs.
Check out the weekly chart of the USD/ZAR pair:
The dollar has been in a strong uptrend versus the rand for over a decade. It’s been one base breakout after another, leading to the USD/ZAR challenging its all-time highs last month.
Those former highs coincide with a key extension level, presenting a logical area for USD/ZAR to digest its recent rally. But the bulls have been persistent.
If and when they absorb the overhead supply and force a resolution, USD/ZAR could embark on a fresh leg higher.
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Originally posted 11th April 2023
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