Market Activity
– THIS IS A SECULAR BULL MARKET IN COMMODITIES
– Copper +10% on the WEEK and highest since May,
– Heating Oil +10% on the month and highest since 2014
– Crude Oil +10% on the month and highest since 2014
– RBOB +11% on the month and highest since 2014
– Cotton locked-limit-up on the day and +20% over two months
– Coffee +8% on the week and highest since July
– Lumber +23% on the month and highest since July
– S&P breaking out above rare major four-star resistance, bullish but there are resistance levels across indices
– CPI and PPI contained this week, chicken and egg argument, STOKES INFLATION, whereas a hot read supports U.S. Dollar and erodes inflation.
– Economic calendar: Sept Retail Sales coming up at 7:30 am CT along with fresh October NY Empire State Manufacturing. Fresh October Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 9:00 am CT.
– China supports risk-environment, told banks to speed up mortgage loan approval, Asia indices +1.5%.
– Goldman Sachs beats earnings estimates, stock +2.25% premarket
E-mini S&P (December) / NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4329, up 74.00
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,037.25, up 273.00
– S&P breaking out above rare major four-star resistance and NQ closing in on its; weekly close matters.
– Close below 4390 and 14,870-14,902 would completely neutralize this latest leg and pin price action back within consolidation range.
– Very bullish if price action holds out above our Pivots and point of balance at … Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
Crude Oil (November)
Yesterday’s close: Settled 81.31, up 0.87
– New swing high of 82.30, above 82.18.
– November contract expiration squeeze? Options expired yesterday and could have contained strength.
– Products lead to the upside.
– December Brent 85.10 high.
– First key support at 80.38-80.65
– Very bullish while holding above our Pivot and point of balance at … Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1797.9, up 3.2
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.477, up 0.307
– We said explicitly that Gold and Silver are not out of the woods and must close above major three-star resistance detailed below and in our chart.
– Gold has failed at major three-star resistance at 1800-1804, aligning a trend line with the 200-day moving average.
– Industrial strength helping to underpin Silver for less of a loss than Gold, but still back below major three-star resistance at 23.35 would like to see a settle above here on the week. – The bullish leg in Gold this week will be completely neutralized upon a close below … Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
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Originally Posted on October 15, 2021 – A Secular Bull Market in Commodities
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