Market Activity
– China implements lockdowns, Covid cases found in 11 provinces.
– Cases rising across the U.K., Germany, and Russia, among others.
– Markets and risk-sentiment very stable in the overnight.
– U.S. Dollar seeing safe haven bid on the back of cases.
– President Biden met with lawmakers over the weekend. Will scaled back agenda move through Congress before the President leaves for Europe end of week?
– S&P and Dow both set fresh record highs on Friday but did not hold.
– About one third of S&P 500 and Dow companies report earnings this week.
– Facebook in the spotlight, earnings after the bell. Bloomberg report, internal concerns on slipping usage rates by younger demographic.
– Tesla and PayPal balancing NQ higher
– Tesla up more than 4% on news Hertz ordered 100,000 cars.
– PayPal up 5.5% after saying not looking to buy Pinterest at this time.
– Crude Oil new highs.
– Natural Gas highest in 10 days
– Central banks in the spotlight this week. Federal Reserve in quiet period. Bank of Canada Wednesday, Bank of Japan Wednesday night, ECB Thursday.
– First look at Q3 GDP Thursday and Fed’s preferred inflation indicator Friday, Core PCE.
– HSBC beat top and bottom estimates early this morning. Kimberly-Clark missed bottom line, -2.5%.
– Alphabet and Microsoft report tomorrow
Do not miss our weekly Top Three Things to Watch this Week.
E-mini S&P (December) / NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4536.50, down 5.25 on Friday and up 74.00 on the week
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,341.00, down 137.75 on Friday and up 206.50 on the week
– The S&P and NQ have stayed rangebound within Friday’s opening bell highs and the 10:30 CT lows. Look for a break outside of this range to encourage directional tailwinds on the session.
– Price action is holding above our momentum indicators, designated as our Pivot below, ahead of the bell.
– Tuesday’s settlement in the S&P has left an untested intraday gap at 4511.25, algins to create major three-star support at 4507.25-4511.25. Added major three-star support developing above here at 4519.75-4525.50. Higher low than Friday tested this level overnight.
– Major three-star support in the NQ … Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
Crude Oil (December)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 83.76, up 1.26 on Friday and 2.03 on the week
– Backwardation steepening further, December holds 1.40 premium on January, nearly $8 premium on June and a $12 premium on December 2022.
– Goldman Sachs suggests global demand is back to pre-pandemic levels 99/100 mbpd and a supply imbalance could lead to $110 Brent.
– Feels like only an uncontrolled outbreak of Covid could derail this bull market; demand hit and Dollar strength.
– India throughputs increased in September to 4.45 mbpd versus 4.35 in August.
– Close above rare major four-star resistance at 84.60-85.00 is a fresh breakout.
– Bulls in the clear driver’s seat across all timeframes while above new major three-star support at … Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1796.3, up 14.4 on Friday and 28.0 on the week
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24.449, up 0.279 on Friday and 1.10 on the week
– Massive rip on Friday, but both Gold and Silver struggled to hold it. Gold finished 1% from swing high and Silver 2% from its. Gold highest since selling on September 7th and Silver highest since Sept 3rd rally.
– Gold higher despite U.S. Dollar strength and downtick in Bonds.
– Pivot in both Gold and Silver detailed below encompasses momentum indicator, 100-and 200-day moving averages. Did not settle above here on Friday. – Friday’s whipsaw reaffirms supports. Gold and Silver both have two waves of major three-star support and the bulls are seemingly in the driver’s seat while above, but we must have strong closes…. Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
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Originally Posted on October 25, 2021 – Earnings, Crude Spreads, and China Lockdowns
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