S&P daily, breakdown or fakedown?
NQ daily, breakdown or fakedown?
Omicron Variant
– The World Health Organization has lost their influence on the public.
– Surging case counts across Europe has been a known known, we have cited it for weeks.
– Public has resisted new restrictions/lockdowns, protests across Europe, some turning violent.
– WHO made a splash Friday announcing Omicron as a severe variant, a day after the U.S. holiday, to reinstall fear across the globe in an attempt to regain influence.
– WHO is doubling down this morning on severity. New travel restrictions imposed. Japan and Israel close borders.
– Case counts are rising across U.S. Midwest, but not in southern states with warmer weather and less restrictions.
– Moderna surges, will have boosters ready in early 2022. It is expected that current vaccines should do the trick on new variant.
– Experts at ground zero in South Africa say symptoms are “mild”.
– Markets are so far snapping back, focusing on the “mild” variant scenario and the potential that peak Covid has hit. Peak being each mutated variant going forward could be less severe.
– WHO and fear or the mild variant scenario?
Crude Oil Plunge
– Crude Oil plunged 13% on Friday on renewed Covid fears.
– All eyes on OPEC+ this week, technical and official meeting later this week.
– For now, cartel looks to keep pace of adds but it could slow bringing back 400,000 bpd in production with uncertainties over new variant.
– Saudi Arabia and Russia may not be happy with the White House’s consortium to release SPR.
Week Ahead
– Fed Chair Powell, along with U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen testify before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow at 9:00 am CT.
– Today, Fed Chair Powell speaks at the “Introducing the New York Innovation Center” event at 2:00 pm CT. Along with NY Fed President Williams.
– Current Fed Vice-Chair Clarida speaks at noon CT today.
– Commitment of Traders released this afternoon due to U.S holiday last week.
– China Manufacturing PMI tonight at 7:00 pm CT.
– Eurozone CPI for November tomorrow morning at 4:00 am CT.
– Jobs in focus, ADP Wednesday, official Nonfarm Payroll Friday.
– ISM Manufacturing Wednesday, ISM Non-Manufacturing Friday.
– Earnings from CRM and HPW tomorrow, SNOW, VEEV, CRWD and SNPS Wednesday, Marvell Thursday, DocuSign Friday, and much more.
E-mini S&P (December) / NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4595.75, down 103.25 on Friday and 98.75 on the week
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 16,051, down 315.00 on Friday and down 524.00 on the week
– Breakdown or fakedown? Chart above, head and shoulders top or massive support from October breakout achieved?
– We believe fakedown, after we turned more Neutral, we are reintroducing a more Bullish Bias (seen as Bullish/Neutral below). However, we want to see a close above major three-star resistance in order to signal the bulls are back in the driver’s seat.
– Similarly, the NQ must close above major three-star resistance.
– Our momentum indicators are trying to round out and align as our Pivots, seen below, to create a point of balance; action above this level is supportive.
– If volatility continues, there is a terrific floor in the S&P aligning with previous record highs to create rare major four-star support at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Crude Oil (January)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 68.15, down 10.24
– Friday’s bloodbath has stabilized on “mild” variant developments. Crude’s worst day since April 2020.
– All eyes on OPEC+ this week, technical and official meeting later this week.
– For now, cartel looks to keep pace of adds but it could slow bringing back 400,000 bpd in production with uncertainties over new variant.
– Saudi Arabia and Russia may not be happy with the White House’s consortium to release SPR.
– We are Bullish from these levels. As of now, this move does not harm expectations for $100 in first half of 2022.
– Recovery has regained previous level of support, will act as point of balance on the session.
– Friday’s plunge will be neutralized on a close above massive resistance at… Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
Gold (February) / Silver (March)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1788.1, up 1.2 on Friday and down 66.2 on the week
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.135, down 0.401 on Friday and -1.709 on the week
– February Gold and Mach Silver are front month
– Gold staged a rally midsession on Friday from major three-star support upon peak variant fears, but quickly retraced.
– We believe focus will shift back to economic data and U.S. economy with jobs and ISM; stronger data will pressure Gold and Silver.
– Major three-star supports holding so far in Gold and Silver.
– If unable to hold decisive action above our Pivots, aligning with momentum indicators, at … Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you!
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Originally Posted on November 29, 2021 – Breakdown or Fakedown?
Charts Source: Trading View
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