- Do not miss our Top Things to Watch this Week, out every Sunday.
- China set a growth target of about 5% at its annual National People’s Congress, its lowest target in more than 30 years, after growing by only 3% last year due to lockdowns, issues in the property sector, and industry-specific crackdowns. The modest target signals the communist nation will lean on organic growth rather than debt-created. Also, the NPC kept its 3% CPI growth target unchanged and announced a plan to add 12 million urban jobs in 2023 versus 11 million in 2022.
- Commodities are broadly lower on China’s GDP target, and the U.S. Dollar has strengthened against the Chinese Yuan. The Offshore Renminbi is tradable through CME futures, and options are set to launch April 3rd. Contact your Blue Line Future representative, or reply to this email for more detail at info@bluelinefutures.com.
- China’s Tradable Balance data for February is due tonight at 9:00 pm CT.
- From the U.S., Factory Orders are due at 9:00 am CT.
- Tomorrow, the focus will shift to Fed Chair Powell as he begins a two-day semiannual Congressional testimony.
- The week builds up into Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.
- According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, there is a 30.6% probability the Fed hikes by 50bps at its meeting in two weeks.
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E-mini S&P (March) / E-mini NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4049.75, up 65.00 on Friday and 74.00 on the week
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,311.25, up 249.25 on Friday, and 314.25 on the week
- On Friday, we said, “We are taking a more Bullish view, but it hinges on a close above 4003-4007 at a minimum and would increase to outright Bullish on a close above 4033-4034.25.”
- We are now outright Bullish while holding above 4033-4034.25 in the S&P and 12,253-12,276 in the NQ, targeting 4098.25-4100.25 in the S&P and 12,483-12,523 in the NQ.
- Regardless, we do believe if you are trading multiple positions, Friday’s strong close was a time to reduce slightly.
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Bias: Bullish
Resistance: 4066.75-4070**, 4075.25**, 4087.50***, 4098.25-4100.25****
Pivot: 4047.25-4056.25
Support: 4033-4034.25***, 4017.25-4022**, 4003-4007***, 3995.25-3998***
NQ (March)
Resistance: 12,390-12,391***, 12,483-12,523****
Pivot: 12,311
Support: 12,253-12,276***, 12,170-12,199***, 12,096-12,112***
Crude Oil (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 79.68, up 1.52 on Friday and 3.36 on the week
- Friday’s post-UAE reversal on not leaving OPEC+ and near-term range breakout now creates major three-star support at 77.96-78.23.
- Despite buoyancy, we are not convinced near-term struggles are in the rearview mirror until a close above rare major four-star resistance at 81.93-82.90.
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Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 79.41-79.76***, 80.33***, 81.93-92.90****
Pivot: 78.74-78.86
Support: 77.96-78.23***, 77.27**, 76.53**, 75.74-75.83***, 74.99-75.39***
Gold (April) / Silver (May)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1854.6, up 14.1 on Friday and 37.5 on the week
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 21.238, up 0.337 on Friday and 0.302 on the week
- On Friday, we said, “Similar to the S&P/NQ section, we are taking a more Bullish view, but this hinges on a close above major three-star resistance at 1852.5-1856.” The settlement was not decisive, but price action extended in electronic hours.
- We will continue to hold a more Bullish Bias, but as we noted in the S&P/NQ section if you are trading multiple positions, Friday’s strength was something to capitalize on at least slightly.
- ISM whipsaw lows will create first major three-star support, detailed below.
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Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 1862.5-1864.4**, 1873.6***
Pivot: 1852.5-1856.7***
Support: 1844.4-1845.4***, 1838.8-1840.4**, 1831.6**, 1824.8-1827.7**, 1810.8-1817.1***
Silver (May)
Resistance: 21.31**, 21.48-21.58***, 21.96-22.20***
Pivot: 21.25
Support: 21.08**, 20.85-20.91***, 20.43-20.57***
—
Originally Posted March 6, 2023 – Is This The Start of Fresh Bull Leg?
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