There isn’t a lot to be said about the equity futures market this morning, which is in a meandering mode. Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down four points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down three points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 24 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.
There is an understandable, wait-and-see element in the trade. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite saw their extended winning streaks come to an end last week and we are moving closer to quarter end, which is oftentimes accented with rebalancing gyrations.
This morning, market participants are taking in the news that Tesla (TSLA) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs and that Alphabet (GOOG) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS. The weakness in those stocks following the ratings changes has been a drag on the futures market.
Nonetheless, there isn’t any concerted selling interest at the index level.
There isn’t a lot of news of note ahead of the open, although there was a noteworthy development on the geopolitical front over the weekend. The leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, led an incursion into Russia with a purported motive of supplanting Russia’s leadership, yet the insurrection effort ended almost as quickly on a reported agreement that enables Prighozin to settle in Belarus.
In brief, Prigozhin and his mercenaries will not be marching on Moscow, yet his actions have infused a bit more geopolitical uncertainty into the mix.
That consideration might be infusing a little bit of a safe-haven trade in Treasuries. Then again, Treasuries could also simply be getting the benefit of some quarter-end rebalancing activity. The latter carries a little more weight in the explanatory realm knowing that the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% and oil and gold futures are little changed.
The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.71% and the 10-yr note yield is down six basis points to 3.68%.
There isn’t any U.S. economic data of note today, yet this week’s calendar will be bookended by the May Personal Income and Spending Report, which will contain the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge in the form of the core-CPE Price Index.
Separately, there will be a smattering of earnings reports from some high-profile companies this week, including Carnival Corp. (CCL) today and continuing with Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), General Mills (GIS), Micron (MU), Paychex (PAYX), and Nike (NKE) over the remainder of the week.
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Originally Posted June 26, 2023 – Market meanders into the new week
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