Markets Grapple with Accelerating Wholesale Prices Amidst Cooling Expectations: Aug. 11, 2023

Just one day after the Consumer Price Index caused investors to breathe a sigh of relief over inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve, this morning’s Producer Price Index (PPI) shows that wholesale prices accelerated in July and is sparking choppy market trading.

The Producer Price Index for July climbed 0.3%, the fastest pace since January. July’s figure exceeds June’s 0% and arrives greater than expectations calling for 0.2%. The Core PPI which excludes food and energy followed a similar path. The core reading also came in at 0.3%, higher than the consensus estimate of 0.2% and from the previous month’s 0.1% contraction. On a year-over-year basis, overall PPI came in at 0.8% while core notched 2.4%, higher than the 0.7% and 2.3% forecasted. The previous month’s y/y digits came in at 0.2% and 2.4% for comparison.

In a familiar theme, services prices drove much of the July PPI increase with the category rising 0.5%. The cost of goods also contributed to price pressure, but only at the margin with a 0.1% increase. Forty percent of the increase in services was driven by a sharp 7.1% gain in portfolio management expenses. Trade services also rose 0.7% during the period, underpinning services costs. Goods prices were strongest within foods, rising 0.5%, while energy prices came in unchanged. 

Consumer Sentiment Holds Gains

While the PPI climbed in July, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index came in similar to last month’s with the lion’s share of gains made this year persisting. August’s score of 71.2 met expectations but is slightly below July’s 71.6. Consumers feel better about the present than the future, however, with the Index of Current Conditions rising from 76.6 to 77.4 while the Index of Consumer Expectations declined from 68.3 to 67.3. In addition to feeling better about current conditions, consumers’ inflation outlook also moderated, with short- and long-run expectations of 3.3% and 2.9% compared to 3.4% and 3.0% in July. The expectations for lower inflation helped soften this morning’s earlier run up in bond yields.

Markets Recover Early Losses

Markets are attempting to shrug off the hotter-than-expected inflation report after the release of cooler-than-expected consumer inflation expectations. Equities were down roughly 0.5% until the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment report at 10:00 am Eastern Time. The report served as the gun shot prior to a swimming race, motivating the bulls to buy the dip. The S&P 500 Index is now roughly unchanged at 4470 with all sectors higher except for technology, communication services and consumer discretionary. Bond yields have cooled since the 8:30 am PPI report, with 2- and 10-year Treasury maturities up 4 and 3 basis points (bps) to 4.86% and 4.11%. Earlier in the session, 2-year and 10-year Treasuries were at 4.91% and 4.16%. Similarly, the Dollar Index was up 20 bps but is now back to today’s starting point of 102.63. Energy markets are benefiting from upbeat forecasts from the International Energy Agency and OPEC+. The former warned of supply constraints for the rest of 2023 while the latter raised its demand forecast for 2024. The news is pushing WTI crude oil prices 0.64% higher to $83.35 per barrel.

A Twisted Inflation Path Could Pinch Consumers and Corporate Earnings

The path through economic cycles is often twisted and full of surprises as illustrated by this morning’s PPI data. Yesterday’s CPI fueled hopes that moderating inflation would allow the Fed to embrace a less hawkish stance, such as pausing its aggressive rate hiking campaign, which in turn could support corporate profits and decrease the chance of the central bank tipping the country into recession. Today’s PPI data has caused investors to become less optimistic and they are placing the likelihood of a September pause followed by a November rate increase at roughly 31%. One open question is if businesses will seek to preserve their profit margins by passing increased wholesale prices on to customers and if they do so, if customers will balk at the increases. The potentially higher prices would also influence future CPI readings, which in turn could provide more fodder for hawkish members of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee to argue for additional rate hikes. Meanwhile, corporate earnings are showing the strain of a slowing economy and higher financing costs. According to FactSet, S&P 500 aggregate second-quarter earnings are expected to decline 5.2% y/y, which would be the largest decline since the third quarter of 2020 when profits contracted 5.7%.

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