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Upgrading Financials To Overweight; Downgrading Communications To Market Weight

Upgrading Financials To Overweight; Downgrading Communications To Market Weight

Posted October 22, 2021
Vermilion Research

We continue to see a steady flow of risk-on signals that have us moving toward an outright bullish outlook for the broad US equity market. Below we discuss several bullish developments that leads us to believe we are close to exiting the “mixed market environment” that we have referenced since late March.

  • Financials, Copper, US Dollar. These three areas were a primary focus in last week’s Compass, and they have since produced very bullish signals, including (1) a decisive breakout above $39 for Financials (XLF), (2) copper making a bullish reversal above $4.38, and (3) the US dollar holding below the major $94.70-$95 resistance level. These are all very bullish developments as they signal strong risk appetites… see chart below.
  • Upgrading Financials; Downgrading Communications. We are upgrading Financials to overweight; cap- and equal-weighted Financial Sectors (XLF, RYF), banks (KBE, KRE), and insurance stocks (KIE) are all breaking out to new highs in unison, as interest rates and spreads rise (i.e., 10/2’s spread) — add exposure. Meanwhile, growth areas have gotten hit, and we are downgrading the Communications Sector to market weight due to RS deterioration for the cap-weighted Sector (XLC) — reduce exposure… see charts below.
  • Additional Risk-On Developments. Several areas are breaking out to new all-time highs, a bullish sign that signals strong risk appetites. Major breakouts can be seen in the Russell 1000 Value index (IWD), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and bitcoin. Buy pullbacks.
  • S&P 500. We noted last week that a break above 4430 in the S&P 500 would signal the pullback is over, and would be a buy signal. We got that breakout on Thursday of last week, and there has been healthy upside follow-through. The S&P 500 is now testing all-time high resistance at 4546. As long as the S&P 500 remains above supports at the 50-day MA (4442) and 4430, we expect to see new highs, targeting 4580 followed by 4675.
Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund, SPDR S&P Bank ETF

Source: FactSet

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