Stocks – AMZN, TSLA, PYPL
Macro – SPY, AUDJPY
MICHAEL KRAMER OWNS SPY PUTS
MICHAEL KRAMER AND THE CLIENTS OF MOTT CAPITAL OWN TSLA
Stocks fell today; it was a take’em down Tuesday, lite. The S&P 500 fell 35 basis points, and the Qs fell by around 70 bps. Tomorrow we will get the CPI report and initial jobless claims because Thursday is a bank holiday, which means the bond market is closed, but not the stock market.
Flattening
Today’s PPI data came in as expected, and that sent bond yields lower. Yields are falling over the world, which means the pressure and momentum on US yields will be lower. The 10-Year fell by five bps to close at 1.44%, while the 2-year fell by 2% to 42 bps. That flattened the curve to 1%, and now it is sitting on a key level of support, resulting in the curve flattening down to 80 bps.
It has negative implications for global growth.
Risk
Meanwhile, we are seeing a massive breakdown in risk, with the AUDJPY cross now sitting on a critical support at 83.15 after dropping a massive 94 bps today. If it breaks support, which I think it will, it will fall to around 82.05. Another significant warning signal for stocks.
S&P 500 (SPY)
I am looking for a top here in the S&P 500, with a reversal back to 4,440 on the S&P 500 futures.
Tesla (TSLA)
Tesla shares fell 12% today and are just above support at $1,000. There is a huge gap that needs to be filled at $909. Gaps tend to get filled more often than not, and I would not be surprised to see that gap filled.
PayPal (PYPL)
PayPal fell by 10.5% and below that critical support level at $212. The stock is momentarily oversold with an RSI of 22.5. But generally, true bottoms aren’t formed until we see a lower price and a higher low on the RSI. So PayPal may bounce, but I think we will see even lower prices.
Amazon (AMZN)
Amazon is still flirting with this gap at $3,575, still has been able to break above resistance. I don’t see how Amazon can rally if the SPX turns lower. But whatever, I have been wrong before. I still think it heads to $3,300.
–
Originally Posted on November 9, 2021 – Stocks Fall On November 9 With More To Go
Disclosure: Mott Capital Management
Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circumstances.
Mott Capital Management has entered into a Portfolio Manager License Agreement with Interactive Advisors pursuant to which it provides trading data IA uses to offer a portfolio to its investment advisory clients. Mott Capital Management is not affiliated with any entities in the Interactive Brokers Group.
Interactive Advisors is an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC.
Pursuant to the Investment Management Agreement between Interactive Advisors and its clients, all brokerage transactions occur through Interactive Brokers LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Advisors. The use of an affiliate for brokerage services represents a potential conflict of interest as Interactive Brokers LLC is paid a commission on trades executed on behalf of Interactive Advisors. Interactive Brokers LLC does not consider this conflict material as it does not sell, solicit, recommend, trade against or otherwise attempt to induce Interactive Advisors to place any orders in any products. Interactive Advisors does not offer services through any other broker-dealer. All trading by Interactive Advisors is self-directed. Interactive Advisors clients acknowledge this potential conflict of interest and authorize Interactive Advisors to execute transactions through Interactive Brokers LLC when they open an Interactive Advisors account. Clients should consider the commissions and other expenses, execution, clearance, and settlement capabilities of Interactive Brokers LLC as a factor in their decision to invest in an Interactive Advisors Portfolio. Interactive Advisors believes it satisfies its best execution obligation by trading its clients’ trades through Interactive Brokers LLC. While there can be no assurance that it will in fact achieve best execution, Interactive Advisors does periodically monitor the execution quality of transactions to ensure that clients receive the best overall trade execution pursuant to regulatory requirements.
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from Mott Capital Management and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Mott Capital Management and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
