What You Missed This Week in EVs and Clean Energy

Tesla begins Cybertruck deliveries, sales of Tesla’s China-made EVs fall 17.8% year-over-year in November

Institutional investors and professional traders rely on The Fly to keep up-to-the-second on breaking news in the electric vehicle and clean energy space.

From the hotly-debated high-flier Tesla (TSLA), Wall Street’s newest darling Rivian (RIVN), traditional-stalwarts turned EV-upstarts GM (GM) and Ford (F) to the numerous SPAC-deal makers that have come public in this red-hot space, The Fly has you covered with “Charged,” a weekly recap of the top stories and expert calls in the sector.

CYBERTRUCK: 

Tesla began delivering its Cybertruck on Thursday, two years behind schedule. The top-end model is priced at $100K, mid-range at $80K and entry-level at $61K, with range limits of 320 miles, 340 miles, and 250 miles, respectively. The rear-wheel drive model won’t be available until 2025, while the dual- and tri-motor Cyberbeast versions will come next year.

RBC Capital kept an Outperform rating on Tesla after the company unveiled the details of its Cybertruck model. Pricing starts at $61K, which is up 56% from the starting price announced in 2019 and at the high end of what the firm expected, the firm tells investors in a research note. The conversion rate on the 1M+ reservations will be low, likely under 20%, though this shouldn’t be a factor through 2024 as Tesla will not deliver a cumulative 200k units until well into 2025, RBC states. The firm further notes that at only 3% of total Tesla volumes in 2024, Cybertruck should not be much of a margin headwind in 2024.

Also commenting on the Cybertruck news, Morgan Stanley said it forecasts 50 deliveries of the truck in FY23, followed by 30,000 units in FY24 and 78,000 units in FY25. A part of Tesla’s brand allure and engineering philosophy involves following through on various “moonshot” projects, such as this “exciting avant-garde ‘art truck’,” but the firm sees it as valuable “putting into perspective” that it forecasts Cybertruck will account for less than 5% of Tesla revenues and closer to 0% of profit by 2025. While Morgan Stanley expects Cybertruck to be made in significant volumes, it believes the company may purposely limit series production to maintain scarcity while focusing company resources on more profitable products. The firm maintained an Overweight rating and $380 price target on Tesla shares.

CHINA-MADE EVS: 

Sales of Tesla’s electric vehicles made in China plunged 17.8% in November vs. the same month a year earlier, to 82,432 cars, China Passenger Car Association data showed, Reuters’ Qiaoyi Li, Zhang Yan and Brenda Goh report. Deliveries of China-made Model 3 and Model Y cars rose 14.3% from October, according to the report.

Click here to check out Tesla’s recent Media Buzz Sentiment as measured by TipRanks.

MOVING TO FISKER SIDELINES: 

Evercore ISI downgraded Fisker (FSR). The company’s production guidance was again reduced to 10,000 from the reduced 13,000-17,000 outlook only three weeks ago, the firm tells investors in a research note. “We know when it’s time (way overdue) to throw in the towel,” Evercore says. In addition to a general lack of execution or tangible evidence of increased execution, the firm sees Fisker’s next 12 months as a “highly precarious tightrope of execution, brand risk, capital raises and dilution.”

SIGNIFICANT RISKS: 

HSBC initiated coverage of QuantumScape (QS) with a Reduce rating. The firm says the “age of disruption is underway” in the auto sector, with rising electric vehicle adoption, growing importance of software, and cost pressures affecting autos stocks. HSBC cites QuantumScape’s long path to commercialization, with significant operational and execution risks not priced in, for the Reduce rating. The firm also initiated coverage of ChargePoint (CHPT) with a Hold rating and $2 price target.

NOVEMBER DELIVERIES: 

Li Auto (LI) announced that the company delivered 41,030 vehicles in November, representing an increase of 172.9% year over year. Cumulative year-to-date deliveries of Li Auto vehicles reached 325,677 as of the end of November, achieving its 2023 target of 300,000 vehicles ahead of schedule.

Nio (NIO) also announced its November delivery results, saying it delivered 15,959 vehicles, an increase of 12.6% year-over-year. The deliveries consisted of 10,545 premium smart electric SUVs, and 5,414 premium smart electric sedans. Cumulative deliveries of Nio vehicles reached 431,582 as of November 30.

Meanwhile, XPeng said that in November, it delivered 20,041 Smart EVs, representing a 245% increase year-over-year and surpassing monthly deliveries of 20,000 for the second straight month. Xpeng G6’s November deliveries reached 8,750 units. Xpeng’s vehicle deliveries have grown month-over-month for the past 10 consecutive months, reaching a year-to-date total of 121,486 units and surpassing total deliveries for the entire year of 2022.

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Originally Posted December 4, 2023 – What You Missed This Week in EVs and Clean Energy