What’s Really Driving the U.S. Housing Market, and Will it Last?

On one hand we have house prices driven rapidly higher with U.S. existing home sales median price rising 23.5% year-on-year (source: National Association of Realtors), and with housing inventory at record lows, and bidding wars from desperate purchasers.

But on the other hand, we have opposite forces set to dampen future price moves. We have future housing supply set to rise rapidly, with March new privately owned housing starts at 15-year highs (source: US Census bureau) and a central bank that has suddenly become less dovish (more hawkish) with their policy.

In this presentation we look into the detail of what’s driving the U.S. home prices and more importantly, how this will play out in the weeks and months ahead. Is this a bubble and will it burst?