While the COVID pandemic forced many changes to the US and global economies, one of the most dramatic shifts occurred in passenger air travel. Even after lockdowns and restrictions were lifted, the prospect of being in a pressurized plane with recirculated air made many people reluctant to travel long distances. As a result, passenger air travel saw a massive contraction that continued after the rollout of COVID vaccines in early 2021.
The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) keeps a daily total of travelers that go through airport security. During the first quarter of 2019, they counted 190.3 million passengers. That number fell to 150.3 million in the first quarter of 2020 as COVID started to spread. It fell to 87.2 million in the first quarter of 2021, less than half of the 2019 level.
With the widespread use of COVID vaccines and more confidence in travelling, TSA passenger checkpoint counts had a seen sharp rebound by the first quarter of 2022, when the number reached 151.1 million. The total for the first quarter 2023 was 189.7 million, only fractionally below pre-pandemic levels.
There has been a notable increase in implied jet fuel demand in recent weeks, with the latest reading of 1.693 million barrels per day being the highest since mid-December.
In addition to leisure travelers, companies are starting to send their employees out on business trips again. This could be another indicator that the US and global economies will continue to expand and may be able to avoid recession this year.
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