Soybean Crop Damage Could Get Worse

Articles From: The Hightower Report
Website: The Hightower Report

This year’s tour was highly anticipated due to the early growing season problems and high crop variability. In the tour, soybean crop conditions are measured by taking pod counts in 3×3 foot squares. The results showed top soybean producer Illinois at 1271 pods versus a 3-year average of 1259, and Indiana’s count was 1310 versus a 3-year average of 1229. Ohio had 1253, which was significantly above the 3-year average of 1161, and Iowa was 1190 versus 1179. Minnesota had 984 pods compared to a 3-year average of 1071. Nebraska’s count was 1160 versus a 3-year average of 1196, and South Dakota’s was 1013 versus a 3-year average of 1040. Of the seven states visited by the tour, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Minnesota had pod counts that were under the 3-year averages.

6-10 Day Temperature Outlook

The final tour results are in, and soybean yield was estimated at 49.7 bushels per acre versus 50.9 in the USDA’s August update. Using a 2% margin of error pegs Pro Farmer yield in a range of 50.7-48. This will be viewed as friendly for the market to start next week.

The wild card this year is the extreme heat and dryness experienced this week, which some crop tour participants said was taking a major toll on the bean plants, with reports of aborted pods and fewer and smaller beans. There have been reports of 20% aborted in some fields in the drier areas. With the extended forecasts showing only light scattered rains for the next 10 days across the soybean belt, further damage could be seen. Once harvest begins, we may further reductions in yield estimates.

6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook

Monday’s weekly crop condition report will be very important to gauge this week’s deterioration. A surprise bullish reaction is possible if conditions fall sharply, especially after today’s tour results came in below USDA.

Originally Published August 25, 2023

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Disclosure: The Hightower Report

This report includes information from sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made, and we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report should not be construed as a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of a futures contract and/or commodity option thereon. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and investors should carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of their financial condition. Any reproduction or retransmission of this report without the expressed written consent of The Hightower Report is strictly prohibited. The data contained herein is subject to revision; independent verification is recommended. Any third party opinions regarding this report are not necessarily those of the authors. Due to the volatile nature of futures and options markets, the information contained herein may be outdated upon its release.

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from The Hightower Report and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or The Hightower Report and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

Disclosure: Futures Trading

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at