The pre-open refrain Monday mornings is probably sounding a lot like a broken record. We keep repeating that the indices came off another winning week, that the S&P 500 (and now Nasdaq) is at a new record high, and that many are expecting a pullback.
The refrain Tuesday through Friday often suggests that the pullback most people are expecting hasn’t happened, and that because it hasn’t happened is why anxious participants keep chasing the indices higher in a fear-of-missing-out trade. That chase has led to gains in 16 of the last 18 weeks, which we are informed is something that hasn’t happened since 1971.
The market will have its work cut out for it this week to make it 17 of the last 19 weeks.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down 11 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down two points and are trading fractionally below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 189 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value.
This week will include earnings reports from various retailers throughout the week, including Target (TGT) and Costco (COST), Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual monetary policy testimony before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, an ECB policy meeting on Thursday, and a slate of economic data featuring the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index on Tuesday and the February employment report on Friday.
Additionally, China’s National Peoples Congress will be conducted all week, driving speculation about the possibility of further stimulus measures; however, FT is reporting that President Xi will resist pressure from markets to increase stimulus.
OPEC+ producers are working to keep some pressure on supply lines, agreeing to extend 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts through the second quarter. Notably, WTI crude prices ($79.77, -0.20, -0.2%) are modestly lower today, partly because they moved up last week on the expectation that the cuts would be extended, but there is also some conjecture that the decision to extend those cuts could be a tacit indication that demand is relatively weak.
Where there isn’t weak demand this morning is for shares of Super Micro Computer (SMCI). They are up 15% on the news that SMCI will be added to the S&P 500 prior to the open on March 18. Deckers Outdoor (DECK) will be, too, but being a footwear and apparel company, and not an AI component, it is up “only” 4.5%. They will be replacing Whirlpool (WHR) and Zions Bancorp (ZION), which are being demoted to the S&P Midcap 400.
In the mega-cap universe, NVIDIA (NVDA) is up another 2.3% in pre-market trading, which is helping to offset Apple’s (AAPL) 1.5% decline following the news that the EU is fining Apple more than EUR1.8 billion for “abusing its dominant position on the market for the distribution of music streaming apps to iPhone and iPad users (‘iOS users’) through its App Store.” Apple plans to appeal the ruling.
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Originally Posted March 4, 2024 – A broken record of records
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