E-mini S&P (March) / E-mini NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4787.25, down 32.75
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 16,720.00, down 303.25
The year was off to a rocky start, with the E-mini NQ leading a risk-off plunge. There was certainly a sense of tax-conscious selling in the new calendar year, hammering 2023’s leadership. The E-mini S&P finished down only 0.7%, whereas the E-mini Dow was nearly unchanged. As we enter the second trading day of the year, the selling was broader overnight, and the focus will shift to economic data and FOMC Minutes. The ISM Manufacturing report for December is due at 9:00 am CT, along with JOLTs for November. Later in the day, the Fed Minutes from the December 13th meeting, one which underpinned an ‘everything rally’, are due at 1:00 pm CT.
After struggling overnight, the E-mini S&P is closing in on major three-star support at 4749.75-4755.50 and support aligning with the December 20th low at 4742.25-4746.25. Additionally, we have rare major four-star support in the E-mini NQ at 15,590-16,628, which was tested and held yesterday. We have additional levels of support underneath here; we anticipate the likeliness of a breach given the broad move. However, what matters for both the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ is if a breach can close constructively back above these significant levels. If so, we could see a reprieve in the selling, leading to a back test of the two-day range while traders and investors await Nonfarm Payroll on Friday.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 4787.25-4789.75***, 4796.75-4797.50**, 4808.25-4809***, 4820-4823***, 4828**, 4833.50-4835.50***, 4837.50-4839.75**, 4851.50**, 4873.25-4874.50**, 4884.75*, 4918.25***, 4956.50***
Pivot: 4773.25-4776
Support: 4765.50-4567.75**, 4761.50**, 4749.75-4755.50***, 4742.25-4746.25***, 4734.75-4738.50***
NQ (March)
Resistance: 16,720-16,737**, 16,760-16,788***, 16,815*, 16,873-16,896***, 16,987-17,024***, 17,049-17,055**, 17,095-17,108***, 17,137-17,159***, 17,245***, 17,493-17,500****
Pivot: 16,668
Support: 16,590-16,628****, 16,542**, 16,373-16,410***, 16,280-16,306**, 16,000-16,079****
Crude Oil (February)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 70.38, down 1.27
WTI Crude Oil futures, upon the session low, tested into the range from December 13th. We see significant support from that day’s session at 69.72, down to 69.28, and a response to this area will work to keep price action range bound as we await more fundamental news. Yesterday’s high of 73.64 traded upon the intraday open and marks a significant level of resistance that now must be breached in order to invite fresh buyers.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 71.19-71.36***, 71.94-72.14**, 72.94**, 73.55-73.64**, 74.16-74.29***
Pivot: 70.90
Support: 70.06-70.32**, 69.28-69.72***, 68.85**, 67.98**
Gold (February) / Silver (March)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2073.4, up 1.6
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.953, down 0.133
U.S. Dollar strength and Treasury weakness have broken the back of precious metals. Gold futures violated an elevated range created from the post-settlement melt higher on December 21st, breaking below 2058-2060. Price action is testing significant resistance at 2041-2043.5, but it is a trend line from the October low aligning with the post-FOMC low to create rare major four-star support at 2029.2-2034. As for Silver, it is in full meltdown but faces strong support from 23.15 down to 22.90, detailed in our levels below. It would be detrimental if buyers did not respond to this level.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 2060.6-2064.3***, 2067.6**, 2074.7-2076.6**, 2079.7-2084.1***, 2088.1-2091.2***, 2093.8-2095.8****,
Pivot: 2051.3-2053.5
Support: 2041-2043.5***, 2029.2-2034****, 1987.9-1997.3****
Silver (March)
Resistance: 23.56**, 23.75-23.78***, 23.95***
Pivot: 23.40-23.45
Support: 23.15***, 23.01-23.06**, 22.92-22.97***
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Originally Posted January 3, 2023 – A Trading Plan Ahead Nonfarm Payroll
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