1/ Bitcoin & the S&P 500
2/ The 10-Year Yield
3/ Crude Oil at Critical Juncture
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1/ Bitcoin & the S&P 500
While this latest run in Bitcoin (BTC) is being attributed to the possibility of an ETF finally being approved, we’ve been hearing rumors of this happening for years.
We’ve seen extremely strong moves in BTC before as well, and there have been countless reasons to explain it.
Of course, we care much more about what its price action actually is doing (not the news behind it). More importantly, does this recent rally give us any indication that buy interest will spread to other risky assets?
Well, here’s one fact.
It has been rare over the years to see BTC move one way and the SPX go in the opposite direction for an extended period of time. Here’s a comparison chart going back to 2015.
Again, the two are not perfectly aligned, but it’s clear that they have moved in the same direction for nearly eight years now.
Thus, if BTC continues to advance, it would suggest there’s an underlying appetite for risk. Most likely, that would NOT be isolated to Crypto… and vice-versa.
2/ The 10-Year Yield
Seemingly nothing has slowed down the 10-Year Yield in recent months. It has gone from 3.3% in March to temporarily topping 5% just recently.
As we know, the stock market doesn’t like higher rates. More specifically, the stock market doesn’t fare well when rates are rising at an exceptionally fast pace.
Going all the way back to the low in August’20, the 10-Year Yield has experienced multiple up-legs. Three times, consistently strong multi-month uptrends that appeared to have gone “too far too fast” simply didn’t slow down. In fact, 10-Year Yield got even stronger, as displayed by the light blue lines below.
This has been happening again now.
The potential good news is that when the prior steep up trendlines finally were broken, rates ticked lower for several months. While this did very little to alter the multi-year uptrend, the respite in higher rates was kind to most risky assets.
For the S&P 500 to take advantage of positive seasonality again soon, seeing the 10-Year Yield break the current steep uptrend line would be helpful.
3/ Crude Oil at Critical Juncture
Crude Oil was sporting one of the biggest and most attractive bullish patterns as recently as early September. It was breaking out from a 10-month bottoming formation after constructively digesting a seven-week winning streak.
The ensuing breakout was undeterred, as Crude Oil advanced for the next five weeks, which, of course, then abruptly ended.
This has been followed by the construction of the pictured multi-month bearish pattern below.
In other words, it’s a battle of chart patterns in the 80-85 zone.
This can be seen via Crude Oil’s 14-week RSI sitting right on the mid-point of its range, as well. Downtrends are characterized by an RSI that fails to get above the 50 level. Uptrends display the opposite trait – the indicator tends to hold above the 50 zone, which it is trying to do again now.
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Originally posted 31st October 2023
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