1/ Liquidity Fuels BTC higher
2/ Banks Drop as Market Conditions Weaken
3/ Bitcoin Screams Out of the 2023 Range
4/ Banks Sink Towards 2023 Lows
5/ Are These Two Factors Impacting the S&P 500?
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1/ Liquidity Fuels BTC higher
Market liquidity levels are a major driver of assets. Combined with risk levels, they give us a good picture of how far an asset can climb and the support behind it. Last Friday, the crypto space exploded higher on the back of friendly liquidity models and some building risk. Our crypto model, shown here, turned higher to end the week, feeding support for a climb. For Bitcoin, shown in the charts further down, this has broken it out of a 2023 range where sellers have been sitting at 30k and buyers at 25k. The effect has not been as strong for other cryptocurrencies as ETH remains well below the 2000 level.
So the question is this: with liquidity remaining elevated, like it was in the fall of 2022 but with some cryptocurrencies supporting the move, can BTC continue to move higher? BTC’s moves in the past, in isolation, have been sold once the last buyer arrived. If liquidity turns lower (at the top of a range), that could adversely impact BTC and other crypto’s. Conversely, a liquidity breakout could support a large climb in the asset class.
2/ Banks Drop as Market Conditions Weaken
Typically, liquidity is a good thing for the Banks but not if other factors are playing out, like weakening financial conditions and an overly tight Fed which is currently the case. The banks model that we use at Column E is at its weakest point since the spring of 2023, yet we have heard very little on issues within the banking system. It makes me wonder if something could be on the horizon within the sector. Also if as mentioned, liquidity were reverse and move lower, that would prove out to be two tightening points on risk assets and hurt the banks further.
3/ Bitcoin Screams Out of the 2023 Range
The chart for Bitcoin is bullish at the moment, liquidity notwithstanding. After failing to breakout above 30k or below 25k for much of 2023, the buyers have stormed into the sector with a vengeance this week, pushing BTC to levels not seen in quite some time. The last time BTC traded at these levels was in the spring after the first rate hike from the Fed. As you can see on the chart, a large range is now in play.
Are there threats to this move? Yes. First, as mentioned, ETH is way behind on the move, though it is over key resistance levels. For BTC to support, I think ETH needs to get over 2000. Also, momentum has crossed over 100% for BTC. In 2 out of the three previous instances, BTC has reversed within a week or two of these breaks, so observe. The other instance, BTC screamed to 60k. Lastly, breadth is not the best. Will it improve with higher prices? Tough to say.
4/ Banks Sink Towards 2023 Lows
The chart on the banks (BKX) is weak. Using this monthly view, the bounce from earlier this year failed to reclaim the 90 level and break through the range above. This was met with selling, which argues lower lows are now in store for the sector though the earnings power has not been this high for the sector in sometime. As mentioned at Column E, we think overly tight rate markets are to blame – the banks have only been falling for the most part since the hike in July. As long as this persists, the trend will remain lower and the next target is the 2023 March lows.
This begs the question – are there issues in the banking system that could pop up soon like they seem to every fall? So far, it has been quiet, with the earnings power on the bank of NIM strong. The chart, however argues further weakness and if new lows follow, you can bet something is probably brewing in the background as we head into the year end.
5/ Are These Two Factors Impacting the S&P 500?
So the question is this – with the banks sinking and cryptocurrencies strong, is this just a coincidence or something more significant? Has BTC become a safe haven as the price of Gold has again failed to climb above 2000? The S&P is having another tough day as shown on the chart and is below key supports, shown at the beginning of the week. The double bottom the market so wanted yesterday has been met with heavy selling and a break of that support. On Monday, I mentioned that the Nasdaq has more room to fall and it appears that instead, investors are selling everything but the Nasdaq (thanks to MSFT last night).
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Originally posted 26th October 2023
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