Chart Advisor: Examining the Treasury Yield Curve

Articles From: Investopedia
Website: Investopedia

By Todd Stankiewicz CMT, CFP, ChFC

1/ Changing Yield Curve Opportunities

2/ Long Bond Bullish Divergence

3/ Seasonality

4/ Investor Sentiment

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1/ Changing Yield Curve Opportunities

The Relative Rotation Graph (RRG) of the treasury yield curve shows the relative performance across the curve may be changing. Back on October 3, I posted a similar RRG showing the extreme underperformance of long duration treasuries vs the outperformance of short duration treasuries.

Since this time, we have seen a major shift across the curve. While long duration is still underperforming, there has been a marked improvement in which the tail is starting to reflect a clockwise rotation towards the improving quadrant.

The short-term treasury positions are now breaking down towards the weakening quadrant. If this rotation persists, it may suggest that there is opportunity in extended out on the yield curve.

2/ Long Bond Bullish Divergence

One of the longest duration Treasury bond ETFs is the Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF, EDV. Above are three different time frame charts for this ETF. The top Chart represents the monthly chart. The middle is the weekly and the bottom is the daily chart of EDV.

Across each of these time frames we can see that there is a Bullish Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergence. This is where the price of the position is moving to a new low, but the RSI made a higher low. Along with this divergence, EDV reached oversold conditions in each of the accompanying scenarios.

This may support a bounce in EDV over all time frames. But there is significant overhead resistance at the 74.30 price level. The response at each resistance level will be important to determine if the bounce has legs to run or is just an oversold reaction.

3/ Seasonality

Over the last 13 years, November has been one of the best months of the year for both stocks and bonds. The top chart is the seasonality pattern of the S&P500 index of the last 13 years, since the Great Financial Crisis. In November, the index closed higher 83% of the time with an average gain of 2.7%. November is only surpassed by July as the best month for the index during this time frame.

The bottom chart if the seasonality pattern of the Ten-Year Treasury Yield over the last 13 years. In November, the yield of the 10-year Treasury Bond closed higher only 42% of the time. Since bond prices move inversely to yields, this means that the price of the treasury closes higher 58% of the time.

Collectively this means that November can be one of the best months for a large cap stock and bond portfolio aside from July based on historical seasonality patterns.

4/ Investor Sentiment

Just last week the AAII investor sentiment Bears reached 50.28%. This was the highest reading of 2023. The AAII Bear level is indicated by the purple line. The orange line is the S&P500 index. This sentiment index often acts as a contrarian indicator. Often the Purple line can be seen spiking at bottoms on the S&P500 index, even if it is just a short-term bottom. In line with previous occurrences, last week was one of the best weeks of the year for the S&P500 index as it bounced higher on oversold and extreme pessimism.

Conversely, periods of very low bear levels are often equated to tops in the equity index. This suggests that as long as this bear levels stay elevated there can be an opportunity for the index to continue higher. Due to the contrarian nature of this indicator, It may be prudent to be cautious if the level of bearish sentiment drops to historically low levels.

Originally posted 8th November 2023

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