By J.C. Parets & All Star Charts
1/ Big Levels for Sector ETFs
2/ More Tech Leadership
3/ Precious Metals Are on Breakdown Alert
4/ Got Milk?
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1/ Big Levels for Sector ETFs
We have discussed the overhead supply in a variety of different indexes this summer. We see this theme playing out not just in the U.S., but also abroad. We see it in small-cap indexes as well as their large-cap peers.
We are also seeing it at a sector level, from a range of groups including both traditional growth and traditional value indexes. For example, here is large-cap technology (XLK) and large-cap industrials (XLI) falling back below their former highs:
After briefly reclaiming the 2021 highs, both indexes printed failed breakouts and rolled over. As long as the indexes remain beneath these critical resistance levels, the path forward is likely to include more corrective action.
Following solid gains in the first half of the year, some digestion and consolidation is warranted. How long it takes is the question.
2/ More Tech Leadership
Despite a short window of relative strength from some value sectors, the leadership trends remain firmly in favor of technology stocks. Large-cap technology (XLK) is up 35% this year, more than doubling the S&P 500 at just 15%.
When we look at the ratio chart of technology vs. the overall market, we see an orderly uptrend retesting its former highs from above:
From a structural perspective, it is hard to take the recent sell-off in technology as anything more than a textbook pattern breakout. After going sideways for almost three years relative to the broader market, the ratio resolved higher from its range earlier this year.
As long as this resolution remains valid, we should expect further outperformance from large-cap technology stocks over the long term.
3/ Precious Metals Are on Breakdown Alert
Precious metals look increasingly vulnerable as sellers challenge former support levels.
Gold futures have drifted back to the prior commodity supercycle peak (2011), while the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) retests a critical level versus the S&P 500 (SPY).
It’s now or never for these shiny rocks and their related equities—on absolute and relative terms.
Gold mining stocks have managed to trough relative to the broader market at these levels since early 2015. It would make perfect sense for a similar trend reversal to take place in the coming months.
But the more times a level is tested, the higher the likelihood it breaks.
The GDX/SPY ratio is also challenging these critical lows for the third time in less than two years, revealing a steady relative weakness that favors a downside resolution.
Either way, precious metals are on breakdown alert.
4/ Got Milk?
Energy contracts have put on quite the show this quarter. But few commodities besides crude oil and its comrades have enjoyed similar gains.
In fact, many contracts are trending sideways to lower.
Check out New Zealand Whole Milk Powder futures retesting COVID lows:
New Zealand milk futures indicate global supply and demand, as China represents the country’s most significant trade partner.
The message from milk futures: Demand for raw materials is increasingly weak across the second largest economy in the world.
A breakdown below the former 2020 lows in New Zealand milk futures could signal more trouble ahead for China and perhaps the global economy.
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Originally posted 22d August 2023
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