Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was the center of the market’s attention on Friday. At first, stocks dipped, then they rose, and then they dipped again. They had a “double dip.”
We know George Costanza is okay with a double dip, but most people are not. It turned out that most people participating in Friday’s market (and that wasn’t many based on the paltry trading volume) were not okay with the double dip and decided to buy on the second dip that took the S&P 500 to 4,356.
When Friday’s session came to a close, the S&P 500 stood at 4,405 and had ended a three-week losing streak along with the Nasdaq Composite.
There is some carryover buying interest in the equity futures market this morning.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 18 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 85 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 144 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.
Gains in the mega-cap stocks, a 5.7% pop in shares of Dow component 3M (MMM) on reports it is close to a $5.5 billion settlement in the military earplugs case, and a spate of M&A activity have helped underpin the positive bias.
A dip in market rates isn’t hurting either. The 2-yr note yield, which was at 5.10% a short time ago, is now at 5.05%, unchanged from Friday’s settlement, and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.20%.
Some might point to a rash of stock market support measures out of China, which include a 50% cut in the stamp duty, a lower margin financing requirement, and restrictions on stock sales by large shareholders, as another causal factor. That would be overselling that news as a positive catalyst and here’s why: the Shanghai Composite ended its session up 1.1% after being up as much as 5.0% initially.
In other words, participants there were quick to sell into the news in an expression of doubt about its impact in righting what is wrong for the Chinese market.
On the M&A front, the FTC filed a motion to withdraw matter from adjudication regarding Amgen’s (AMGN) bid to acquire Horizon Therapeutics (HZNP), Danaher (DHR) is acquiring Abcam (ABCM) for $24.00 per share in cash, Kimco Realty (KIM) is acquiring RPT Realty (RPT) in an all-stock transaction, and KSL Capital Partners is acquiring Hersha Hospitality Trust (HT) at an approximately 60% premium of $10.00 per share in cash.
There is no U.S. economic data of note today, but the remainder of the week will feature a bevy of important economic releases that include the August Consumer Confidence Index, July JOLTS – Job Openings Report, the second estimate for Q2 GDP, July Personal Income and Spending, the August ISM Manufacturing Index, and the August Employment Situation Report.
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Originally Posted August 28, 2023 – Continuing to recover from the double dip
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