ZINGER KEY POINTS
- February’s jobs report reveals mixed signals: Nonfarm payrolls exceed expectations, but unemployment rate surprisingly rises.
- Market reactions indicate potential Fed policy shift: Treasury yields drop, USD index falls.
On Friday, the U.S. economy presented a mixed jobs report, revealing a stronger-than-anticipated increase in the rate of non-farm payroll growth in February. However, it also showed an unexpected rise in the jobless rate and a decrease in wage growth, potentially signaling a relaxation of tight labor market conditions.
February saw a rise of 270,000 jobs, reflecting an increase from the downwardly revised 229,000 in January, and topping the anticipated 200,000 increase, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday.
February’s Jobs Report: What You Need To Know
- Nonfarm payrolls beat economist estimates, coming at 270,000 in February compared to the expected 200,000.
- Private payrolls increased from a downwardly revised 177,000 in January to 223,000 in February, below the expected 160,000.
- The unemployment rate rose from 3.7% to 3.9%, surprising estimates of 3.7%.
- Wage growth witnessed a deceleration. Average hourly wages grew at a 0.1% monthly pace in February, easing from the downwardly revised 0.5% growth in January, and below the expected 0.3%.
- On an annual basis, wages increases 4.3%, a tad lower compared to January’s 4.4% pace.
Market Reactions
The cooler-than-expected labor market report may serve as a data point supporting the anticipation of the Federal Reserve easing monetary policy later this year, given how markets initially reacted to the release.
Treasury yields moved lower across all maturities, with the 2-year benchmark dropping to 4.42% yield.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF fell 0.3%.
Futures on major U.S. indices traded higher during the premarket trading on Friday. On Thursday, the S&P 500 Index, as monitored through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust closed at record highs.
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Originally Posted March 8, 2024 – February Jobs Growth Tops Forecasts, Yet Higher Jobless Rate, Easing Wages Give Green Light To Fed Rate Cuts
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