ISM Points to Weakening Pricing Power: August 1, 2023

Markets are starting August on the wrong foot, with investors concerned that incoming earnings reports may not yet reflect the cycle’s trough. Along the way, economic data point to weaker profitability amidst strong demand for workers while last month’s 7% rise in commodity prices push upside inflation risks. Next week’s inflation data will be closely watched by market observers, but this week’s upcoming jobs data will provide significant insight on labor-intensive services.

This morning’s economic data reports reflected continued weakness in manufacturing alongside a persistent need for workers across most sectors. Even though current manufacturing conditions are dismal, construction spending for new factories reached a fresh all-time high, as onshoring activities flourish with goods producers prioritizing security and reliability at the expense of short-term profitability. Yesterday afternoon’s Senior Loan Officer Survey, meanwhile, depicted tightening lending standards for households and businesses in the second quarter, as banks manage liquidity constraints alongside higher default risk from borrowers. 

Manufacturing Continues to Contract

This morning’s July ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index for Manufacturing came in at 46.4, less than projections estimating 46.8. July’s reading marked a slower pace of contraction from June’s 46, but remained well below the expansion-contraction threshold at 50. Weighing most were prices, with a reading of 42.6, as weak orders amidst supply chain improvements incentivized discounting. Deteriorating demand and declining backlogs are leading factories to rethink employee counts, with employment registering a sharp drop to 44.4.

June job openings dropped modestly from May, with the reported 9.582 million coming in slightly lighter than the 9.61 million consensus projection. June marks a cycle low and the lowest level since April of 2021, however, as the labor market slowly cools. Most sectors shifted lower along the trend while the health care and social assistance and government sectors reported increases in job openings.

Construction spending depicted slowing momentum in the real estate industry, with outlays rising 0.5% in June, less than half the rate in May. June’s read came in slightly lower than economists’ expectations of 0.6% and much lower than May’s 1.1%. The residential and office sectors drove most of the gains, rising 0.9% and 0.7% during the period. Manufacturing construction outlays rose 0.3% during the period.

Markets Decline

Markets are lower today as we enter a seasonally unfriendly period for equities, with a broad move to the downside across sectors. The S&P 500 Index is down 0.3% to 4573 as bulls have unsuccessfully attempted to break through resistance at 4600 while homebuilders are the only group bucking the trend. Yields and the dollar are higher, as investors respond to strong labor data by dialing up September rate hike expectations against the backdrop of a weaker Japanese yen following the nation’s central bank recently announcing a bond buying program. The news comes a week after the bank tilted the other way by allowing the nation’s 10-year yield to rise to 1%, up from a previous cap of 50 basis points (bps). In the U.S., the 2-and 10-year Treasury maturities are up 3 and 9 bps to 4.9% and 4.05%, while the Dollar Index is up 53 bps to 102.41. Following a strong 16% gain in July, WTI crude oil is down 0.68% to $81.24 per barrel on defensive sentiments and the stronger dollar.  

Earnings Reflect Weaker Ordering

Shortly after trucking company Yellow, which has 30,000 workers, filed for bankruptcy, logistics company DHL said second-quarter earnings missed expectations while BMW said higher costs of manufacturing electric vehicles are likely to hurt its free-cash flow. DHL freight revenues tanked 41% from the year-ago quarter with manufacturers cutting back on shipping due to declining consumer demand, inflation and high inventory levels. Its overall revenue of $22.07 billion declined 16% year-over-year and missed the consensus expectation of $23.82 billion. BMW, which reports earnings on Thursday, said restocking its inventory and increasing its investment in electric vehicles will reduce its free cash flow from $7.68 billion to $6.58 billion. However, the company upgraded its guidance for margins.

A Potentially Rocky Road Ahead

Today’s ISM data is not supportive of a reacceleration in earnings growth that many equity investors are anticipating. This view is underscored by the latest earnings estimates from FactSet. Based on already reported second-quarter earnings and earnings estimates for yet-to-be-reported results, S&P 500 profits are expected to decline 7.3% while at the end of June the organization estimated earnings would decline only 7%. Meanwhile, the impact of past fed fund rate increases and the recent credit crunch hasn’t fully been digested as a lag exists between monetary policy tightening and the economy slowing, so corporate earnings are likely to experience headwinds going forward, especially if the Fed further dampens sentiment by raising the fed funds rate another 25 bps at its September meeting. With those points in mind, tomorrow’s ADP jobs report and job market data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics this coming Friday are likely to provide important insight regarding the strength of the economy and the outlook for corporate earnings. 

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