Managing the Post-Fed Data Dump

Articles From: Blue Line Futures
Website: Blue Line Futures

By:

President of Blue Line Futures

E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4595.25, down 0.75

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,610.75, down 62.25 

The Federal Reserve raised rates yesterday by 25bps as expected. Fed Chair Powell controlled the press conference perfectly, reiterating the committee’s data dependence going forward. He added that some committee members do see rate cuts as early as next year. However, for now, the CME Fed Watch Tool signals a 20% probability the Fed will hike rates 25bps at its next meeting September 20th.

Following the Fed, E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures closed quietly within a sizable range before META crushed earnings estimates with 11% y/y revenue growth and increased guidance. The announcement lifted indices, carrying them higher overnight and into today’s deluge of news. The ECB announces a policy decision at 7:15 am CT and is expected to hike rates by 25bps. ECB president Lagarde will hold a press conference at 7:45 am CT. From the U.S., the first look at Q2 GDP is due at 7:30 am CT, along with weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Durable Goods. Pending Home Sales are due at 9:00 am CT, and the Treasury will auction $35 billion 7-year Notes at noon CT.

We continue to hold our more Bullish Bias as E-mini S&P futures have broken out above major three-star resistance at 4606-4609.25, though we want to see this secured on the weekly close tomorrow. We have had key resistance at 4625.50-4631, which price action is testing into this morning. The E-mini NQ has cleared its hurdle at the 15,710-15,739 mark, which now stands as major three-star support. However, strong resistance is aligning with the opening bell range the morning after TSLA reported and the gap from the close before TSLA earnings. To the downside, we have rare major four-star support in each at yesterday’s settlement, as it could be devastating to the rally if these levels were surrendered.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 4625.50-4631**, 4554.75**, 4667.75-4671.75***

Support: 4606-4609.25***, 4595.25****, 4585**, 4573.75-4579.50***, 4560.50-4565.75***

NQ (Sept)

Resistance: 15,856-15,895***, 15,959-16,009****

Pivot: 15,785

Support: 15,710-15,739***, 15,646**, 15,610****, 15,558-15,566**, 15,519***, 15,444-15,475****

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Crude Oil (September)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 78.78, down 0.85

Crude Oil future are again eyeing the $80 mark. Despite a somewhat bearish inventory report yesterday, where draws were smaller across the board and highlighted by -11.09 mb of Net Imports w/w, price action is on the rebound today after reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia may look to further production cuts to underpin prices.

Yesterday’s weakness in Crude Oil futures held out above first key support and battled at our Pivot and point of balance in an extremely constructive manner, setting the tape up for today’s rebound. Continued price action above our new Pivot and point of balance at 79.14-79.28 will keep momentum in the hands of the bulls.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 79.63-79.90***, 80.39-80.70***, 82.52-82.71***

Pivot: 79.14-79.28

Support: 78.55-78.78**, 78.14-78.32**, 77.07-77.37***

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Gold (December) / Silver (September)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 2009.5, up 6.7

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24.97, up 0.146

December Gold is now front month. Gold and Silver futures climbed higher in the Fed aftermath and through the overnight. However, Gold futures are retreating a bit from an overnight peak of 2022.1, while Silver is holding out above previous major three-star resistance, now our Pivot and point of balance at 25.07-25.11. Similarly, Gold is now battling at its Pivot and point of balance at 2012. These levels must hold in order to keep feeding bullish momentum for a decisive breakout. However, a deluge of economic data lurks ahead. The ECB announces a policy decision at 7:15 am CT and is expected to hike rates by 25bps. ECB president Lagarde will then hold a press conference beginning at 7:45 am CT. From the U.S., the first look at Q2 GDP is due at 7:30 am CT, along with weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Durable Goods. Pending Home Sales are then due at 9:00 am CT, and the Treasury will auction $35 billion 7-year Notes at noon CT.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 2019.6**, 2027-2028.6***, 2034.5***, 2038.9-2043.2**, 2056.9***

Pivot: 2012

Support: 2001-2002.8***, 1994.5-1995.1***, 1990.6**, 1983.9-1987.9***, 1973.3-1975.8***

Silver (September)

Resistance: 25.23-25.30**, 25.46-25.53**, 25.76-25.88***

Pivot: 25.07-25.11***

Support: 24.97***, 24.82-24.87**, 24.65-24.69***, 24.51-24.58***, 24.27-24.39***

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Originally Posted July 27, 2023 – Managing the Post-Fed Data Dump

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