The only market closed today for a holiday is Bulgaria’s Sofia Stock Exchange. The rest of the stock market world is open for business. A positive bias has been seen throughout Asia and Europe, primarily because the U.S. market has retained its remarkably positive bias.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 came within 12 points of its record closing high (4,796.56) seen on January 3, 2022, before backing off just a bit into the close. At yesterday’s high, the S&P 500 was up 16.6% from its October 27 low.
It isn’t expected to do much at today’s open. Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up two points and are trading roughly in-line with fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 23 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down four points and are trading roughly in-line with fair value.
Not doing much, though, is still saying a lot. Sellers aren’t part of the equation in any meaningful degree.
Sure, there are some outliers on an individual stock basis (there always are), but at the index level it remains a picture of resilience.
Seasonality, momentum, performance chasing, and, frankly, speculative behavior have provided some unyielding support during an eight-week win streak for the stock market. The drop in market rates and the increase in rate-cut expectations, however, have been the foundation.
Market rates are down again today, too. The 2-yr note yield is down eight basis points to 4.27% and the 10-yr note yield is down five basis points to 3.84%.
There hasn’t been a specific news driver to account for the drop in market rates. Some might point to geopolitical angst, particularly related to the Middle East, as the causal factor. The dollar is down today, however, as are oil prices ($75.03, -0.54, -0.7%), so that would be a narrative stretch to fit the price action with the headline.
In any case, the stock market at this point isn’t going to be perturbed by the ongoing slide in Treasury yields, which is generally viewed as a basis to keep the rally going or at least from falling apart.
Another plain truth is that there is a lack of meaningful news to upset the stock market’s bias. Accordingly, in the absence of such news, a material shift in the trading trend is also absent.
There is no U.S. economic data of note today, but there is a $58 billion 5-yr note auction. Results of that auction will be released at 1:00 p.m. ET.
—
Originally Posted December 27, 2023 – Not doing much, but that’s still saying a lot
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from Briefing.com and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Briefing.com and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Join The Conversation
If you have a general question, it may already be covered in our FAQs. If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.