Was that the Blow-Off Top?

Articles From: Blue Line Futures
Website: Blue Line Futures

By:

President of Blue Line Futures

E-mini S&P (March) / E-mini NQ (March)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4898.00, up 3.00

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 17,621.00, up 89.75

We remain overall Bullish in Bias in this bull market, but there is no reason not to be prudent after such a fantastic start to the year and carry from the fourth quarter. Was yesterday the beginning of a blow-off top? While we have said a rotation from Tech to Healthcare, Financials, and Industrials will take place at some point, it is our belief it cannot until a blow-off top within the leading asset class. Furthermore, we want to be clear: a rotation does not need to last more than a month or two. Looking ahead to a massive week next week between earnings, the Fed, and Nonfarm Payrolls, we believe it is time to keep trades short-in-duration and tight in risk. Do not miss Blue Line Futures and Blue Line Capital President and CIO live from the NYSE on the CNBC Halftime Report today at 11:00 am CT, for the hour, where he will cover all of this and more!

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 4904.75*, 4909-4911.25**, 4918.25-4919.75**, 4927.75-4933.25***, 4981-5000****

Pivot: 4895.75-4898.25

Support: 4889.25**, 4881-4884**, 4873.25-4875.25***, 4869.50***, 4859.75-4861.75**, 4845**, 4836.50-4841.50***, 4825.50-4826**, 4815.75-4817**, 4808.50-4811.75****

NQ (March)

Resistance: 17,679-17,695***, 17,765-17,794***, 17,996-18,000****

Pivot: 17,621-17,637

Support: 17,585***, 17,531-17,533***, 17,488-17,497**, 17,438**, 17,371-17,409***, 17,241-17,245***, 17,166-17,192***, 17,095-17,111****

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Crude Oil (March)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 75.09, up 0.72

Crude Oil futures have now decisively breached the .382 retracement back to the September high at 75.31, and this encourages us to hold a more Bullish Bias while trading out above major three-star support aligning with yesterday’s settlement at 74.83-75.15. However, we cannot ignore the market trading into a thick area of resistance aligning with the high volume reversal on November 30th, creating significant headwinds.

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 76.31-76.71***, 77.48-77.98***, 79.57-79.65***

Pivot: 75.71-75.83

Support: 75.31-75.46**, 74.83-75.09***, 74.49-74.63**, 73.94**, 73.40**, 72.99-73.28***, 72.10-72.27***, 71.25-71.52***

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Gold (February) / Silver (March)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled 2016.0, down 9.8

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 22.889, up 0.427

Gold and Silver have played an exhausting game of ‘hot potato’ where one takes a bludgeoning while the other looks on. Given December’s volatility, we look to today’s February option expiration, which took on significant volume, as a moment that could help normalize this trade. Furthermore, whereas we have warned that melt-ups on prior options and futures expiration as creating near-term tops due to the roll premium, this expiration may be the opposite, with liquidation front-running the calendar. We remain cautiously Bullish from a fundamental perspective, although the technical landscape is much less desirable.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: 2019.4-2021.6***, 2024-2025.7**, 2032.1**, 2039.3-2043.3***, 2048.9-2051.4***, 2062.4-2067.3***

Pivot: 2032

Support: 2004.6-2009.1***, 1987.9-1997.3****

Silver (March)

Resistance: 22.95-23.05***, 23.23**, 23.33** 23.68-23.76****

Pivot: 22.88

Support: 22.74-22.78**, 22.58-22.63***, 22.40-22.46***, 22.26**, 22.05-22.16***, 21.75-21.89***

Blue Line Futures provides daily actionable research and a professional trade desk. Sign up for a Free Trial here. 

Originally Posted January 25, 2024 – Was that the Blow-Off Top?

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