E-mini S&P (December) / E-mini NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4490, down 11.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,375.25, down 39.25
Rare major four-star support in E-mini S&P futures at 4463-4474 became the magnet we spoke of. After a direct test and hold through the European close, price action lifted through the second half of the session. Essentially, this was the post-expiration Monday playbook, to a tee, just a day later. The rebound has held firm into the onset of U.S. hours and ahead of today’s Federal Reserve policy decision at 1:00 pm CT. First key resistance aligns with Monday’s gap close, but it is major three-star resistance aligning with Monday’s session high in the E-mini S&P and Friday’s breakdown in the E-mini NQ that could become a pivotal test as the session unfolds.
Resistance: 4501.50-4502.25**, 4507.75**, 4512.75-4517.50***, 4525-4528**, 4539.50-4544.75***, 4552-4555****
Support: 4490***, 4483.25-4586.75**, 4463-4474****, 4444.75**
Resistance: 15,408-15,439**, 15,463-15,468**, 15,489-15,508***, 15,531-15,552***, 15,627**, 15,673***, 15,709-15,732****
Support: 15,338-13,356**, 15,248-15,273***, 15,167-15,198***, 15,139**, 15,006-15,048***
Crude Oil (November)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 90.48, down 0.10
Crude Oil reversed right on cue at the 8:00 am CT traditional intraday open, after the October contract became untradable. We spoke of exactly his here yesterday, how it is not uncommon to see a directional move into expiration and especially in Crude Oil. The reversal not only took out, but settled below the critical 90.56 area, which now aligns to create major three-star resistance at 90.31-90.58.
Given the technical undertow, last night’s private API survey was largely a nonfactor, though printed -5.25 mb Crude, +0.732 mb Gasoline, -0.258 mb Distillates, and -2.564 mb at Cushing. Expectations for today’s official EIA report are -2.2 mb Crude Oil, +0.317 mb Gasoline, and +0.217 mb Distillates.
Resistance: 89.91-90.00**, 90.31-90.58***, 91.26-91.27**, 91.55-91.86**, 92.43-92.64***, 93.62-93.74***
Support: 88.65-88.85***, 87.74-87.88***, 87.25-87.49***, 86.58-86.66***
Gold (December) / Silver (December)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled 1953.7, up 0.3
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 23.456, down 0.042
It is Fed day, so be prepared for added volatility and dependence on the rate, currency, and risk-environment as you trade Gold, Silver, Copper, and Platinum from 1:00 pm CT, through close. The rebound yesterday morning was a pretty standard snapback from oversold conditions, as Gold, but Silver more so, needed to find a point of balance before today’s announcement. Major three-star resistance in Silver at 23.65-23.76 held perfectly, whereas Gold traded above its major three-star resistance at 1953.4-1954.8, though it did not close above. As today unfolds, it will be critical how this overhead resistance is accepted in the case of a retest.
Resistance: 1957.7-1958.9**, 1966.4-1971.1***, 1977.1**, 1980.2-1984.7***
Support: 1948.6-1949.5**, 1943.8***, 1937.2-1938.4**, 1931-1932.8***, 1921.7-1926***, 1913.6-1916.2***
Resistance: 23.58**, 23.65-23.76***, 23.99***
Support: 23.23-23.30**, 22.99-23.08***, 22.85**, 22.55-22.72****, 22.30***
Originally Posted September 20, 2023 – Where to From Here?
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