By: Gerald Sparrow President & Founder, Sparrow Capital Management, Inc.
The Federal Reserve has a dual mandate—manage inflation and maximize employment. But sometimes, those economic goals conflict with each other.
As you can see in the accompanying chart, labor shortages in 2022 pressured businesses to lift wages, which, in turn, put more money in people’s pockets. More money leads to more spending, which can produce inflation. So from the Fed’s perspective, employment improved last year, but inflation worsened.
But 2023 is telling a different story. Median wage growth is heading lower while inflation is dropping, which is precisely what Fed Chair Jerome Powell wants to see as he evaluates what’s next for short-term interest rates.
“I would say it’s certainly possible that we will raise funds again at the September meeting if the data warranted,” said Powell after the Fed’s July meeting. “And I would also say it’s possible that we would choose to hold steady, and we’re going to be making careful assessments, as I said, meeting by meeting.”1
With wages lower and consumer prices trending down, we’re closer to the end of the rate-hike cycle than in the beginning. So stay tuned! The next Fed meeting is in September, but Federal Reserve officials will be making several speeches during the next few weeks.
1. CNBC.com, July 26, 2023. “Fed approves hike that takes interest rates to highest level in more than 22 years.
Originally Posted August 9, 2023 – Why the Fed is focused on your paycheck
This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. This information is not intended to be individual or personalized investment or tax advice and should not be used for trading purposes. Please consult a financial advisor or tax professional for more information regarding your investment and/or tax situation.
Disclosure: Interactive Advisors
This material is not intended as investment advice. Interactive Advisors or portfolio managers on its marketplace may hold long or short positions in the companies mentioned through stocks, options or other securities.
Pursuant to the Investment Management Agreement between Interactive Advisors and its clients, all brokerage transactions occur through Interactive Brokers LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors does not offer services through any other broker-dealer. The use of an affiliate for brokerage services represents a conflict of interest. Interactive Advisors clients acknowledge this conflict of interest and authorize Interactive Advisors to execute transactions through Interactive Brokers LLC when they open an Interactive Advisors account. Clients should consider the commissions and other expenses, execution, clearance, and settlement capabilities of Interactive Brokers LLC as a factor in their decision to invest in an Interactive Advisors Portfolio. Interactive Advisors believes it can meet its best execution obligation by trading its clients’ trades through Interactive Brokers LLC. While there can be no assurance that it will in fact achieve best execution, Interactive Advisors does periodically monitor the execution quality of transactions to ensure that clients receive the best overall trade execution pursuant to regulatory requirements.
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from Interactive Advisors and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Interactive Advisors and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.