Chips Fuel October Rebound in Singapore Manufacturing Growth

• Singapore Oct Industrial Production (IP) expanded 7.4% YoY, the first YoY expansion since Sep 2022. Electronics led the recovery, which were up 14.8% YoY. Electronics make up 45% of Singapore’s IP (of which 38pps represents Semiconductors). The Electronics Cluster was reported to expand 14.8% YoY in Oct.
   
• In the stock market, Singapore’s Technology Sector has booked the highest net institutional inflow in the month of Nov (through to 24 Nov), with S$47 million of net inflow, while the broader market has seen more than S$750 million of net institutional outflow. Venture, iFAST, Aztech Global, Frencken and UMS have led the Sector’s net institutional inflow across the same period.
   
• During 2023, semiconductor companies have increasingly contrasted overcapacity and the chip glut with potential demand for semiconductors and semiconductor services spurred by Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications in 2024 and beyond. Singapore lists multiple technology stocks that serve in industries adjacent to AI-relevant sub-industries.
   

On Friday, the Singapore Oct Industrial Production (IP) reported 7.4% YoY growth, representing the first YoY expansion since Sep 2022. The report also saw the Sep IP revised to a 1.1% YoY expansion, from a 2.1% contraction. For October, Electronics led the recovery, which were up 14.8% YoY. Electronics make up 45.3% of Singapore’s IP (of which 38.3pps represents Semiconductors). The Electronics Cluster turnaround from -21.1% YoY in Aug, to +12.7% YoY in Sep and preliminary +14.8% YoY in Oct, brings the cumulative decline in 2023 from January through to October to -4.6% YoY, with total IP declining 4.5% YoY for the 10 months.

During the 2023 year to 24 Nov, the weaker performance of regional manufacturing extended to the iEdge SG Adv Manufacturing Index. This Index generated a decline in total return of 6.6%, compared to the STI’s flat total return, with approximately three decliners to every two gainers in the Index. Among the 10 biggest Index weights of the iEdge SG Adv Manufacturing Index, ST Engineering, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding bucked the broader trend with 17% and 13% total returns respectively, while SATS, Keppel Infrastructure Trust and Emperador booked more marginal gains. NIO, Seatrium and Venture Corporation led the decline among the 10 biggest weights, averaging 23% declines in total return.  

Singapore’s Technology Stocks

Venture Corporation is also Singapore’s most traded stock of the Technology Sector, with close to S$19 million of shares trading hands daily.

While the stock has declined 21% in total return in the 2023 year to 24 Nov, the stock has gained 9% since the end of October. On Nov 3, Venture Corporation noted its 9MFY23 revenue declined against a high base last year due to soft customer demand and ongoing inventory destocking. Looking forward, the company highlighted it intends to expand its participation in new high-growth technology domains, adding that new product introductions with both existing and new customers are on track to be rolled out next year.

Singapore’s 15 most traded stocks of the Technology Sector in the 2023 year to 24 Nov are tabled below.

15 Most Traded Technology stocks Listed on SGX sort by Most Net Institutional Inflow in Nov MTD	Code	Mkt Cap S$M	Avg Daily T/O YTD S$M	Nov MTD %	Net Insti Flow MTD S$M	QTD TR %	YTD TR %	Net Insti Flow YTD S$M
Venture	V03	3,721	18.53	9	33.3	4	-21	-256.6
IFAST	AIY	2,309	2.21	19	17.8	39	35	38.1
Aztech Gbl	8AZ	722	0.64	4	3.0	16	19	-1.4
Frencken	E28	483	4.43	9	2.2	1	24	12.1
UMS	558	845	5.93	1	1.7	-2	11	59.0
ISDN	I07	152	0.78	5	0.1	-7	-20	-0.4
Silverlake Axis	5CP	678	0.18	2	0.1	4	-23	-5.9
Totm Tech	42F	50	0.19	-5	0.0	-21	-61	-2.9
Sinocloud Grp	LYY	4	0.09	12	0.0	-18	-82	-0.2
Creative	C76	108	0.07	6	0.0	-9	8	-0.1
Grand Venture	JLB	171	0.07	3	-0.1	-12	1	-1.3
CSE Global	544	264	0.52	5	-0.9	-5	36	1.7
Valuetronics	BN2	226	0.14	12	-1.8	7	14	-1.3
Nanofilm	MZH	573	3.80	-5	-3.8	-6	-36	-24.5
AEM SGD	AWX	1,047	5.87	-2	-4.6	-1	0	37.2
Average				5		-1	-6
Median				5		-2	1
Total		11,353	43		47			-146

Source: SGX (Data as of 24 Nov 2023)

On Friday, Venture Corporation closed at S$12.81 per share. Note Refinitiv consensus estimates represent the average of individual estimates provided by analysts covering the stock and estimates typically represent an analyst’s opinion of the company performance over the next 18 months. The stock was also trading at a price-to-book ratio of 1.3x, compared to its 5-yr average price-to-book ratio of 1.9x.

Venture Corporation, along with iFAST Corporation, Aztech Global, Frencken Group and UMS Holdings have led the S$47 million in net institutional inflows of Singapore’s Technology Sector in the Nov month to 24 Nov. iFAST Corporation reported on 25 Oct that its 3QFY23 net profit surged 308% YoY to S$8.5 million, driven by Singapore and Hong Kong operations, in addition to announcing on 21 Nov the official launch of iFAST Global Hub.ai in Malaysia. Aztech Global updated on 16 Oct that its 3QFY23 revenue improved by 17% YoY to S$283 million, driven by sales of IoT devices and Data-communication products. On 22 Nov, Frencken Group provided a business update, with 3QFY23 revenue at S$184 million, which was a decline of 6% YoY. For its 2HFY23 guidance, the company noted that its Semiconductor segment is expected to post higher revenue, lifted mainly by increased sales in Europe and stable sales in Asia. UMS Holdings’ 3QFY23 business update highlighted net attributable profit advanced 32% from 2QFY23 to S$15 million, with revenue of S$71 million in 3QFY23, which was 4% lower than 2QFY23.

AI Applications in 2024 and Beyond

This year, semiconductor companies have been increasingly contrasting the 2023 overcapacity and chip glut with potential demand for semiconductors and semiconductor services spurred by Artificial Intelligence (AI) applications in 2024 and 2025. Singapore lists multiple stocks that operate adjacent to the hardware, industrial applications or software sub-industries that comprise the iEdge AI 40 Index.  

Back in April, Gartner noted that the “memory industry is dealing with overcapacity and excess inventory, which will continue to put significant pressure on average selling prices in 2023” with “the memory market projected to total $92.3 billion, a decline of 35.5% in 2023, however, it is on pace to rebound in 2024 with a 70% increase”.

According to SEMI, a 2024 semiconductor rebound is expected to continue through 2026, with wafer shipments setting new highs as silicon demand increases to support AI, high-performance computing (HPC), 5G, automotive and industrial applications. Most semiconductor associations project semiconductor sales to be in the vicinity of US$1 trillion by 2030, up from Semiconductor Industry Association’s gauge of ~US$575 billion in 2022, with Applied Materials noting in its 3QFY23 presentation that the IoT + AI era is driving a new wave of industry growth and innovation.

AEM Holdings has continued to invest in developing its suite of Test 2.0 innovations and capabilities. This has resulted in AEM Holdings being awarded additional patents for its thermal capabilities in 3QFY23, and most of the Group’s customer engagements relate to next generation test requirements for advanced packaging chips used in high performance computing and AI. AEM Holdings also maintains that the generative AI wave that gained momentum early this year, especially in the data center space, is expanding to edge computing devices. This increases the overall transistor counts and architectural complexity and AEM Holdings believes these devices will face extreme test challenges that will translate into longer test times due to the increased test complexity and should provide long term tailwinds for the Group’s Test 2.0 business. For timing, the Group believes demand for test solutions to address this market will be realised towards the end of 2024 and into 2025.

UMS Holdings believes that going forward, its growth will continue to be powered by its twin growth engines – semiconductors – which will benefit from new tech innovations and the AI boom – and aerospace as global air travel trends extend their strong rebound. With the completion of its new production facilities in Penang, the Group maintains it is well poised to capture new growth opportunities on the horizon.

Deloitte maintains that Generative AI has “diverse applications across all industries, ranging from market research and note-taking, to enhancing customer support interactions” and that “specific use cases have been identified in various sectors, such as personalised financial planning for wealth management, medical diagnosis in healthcare, creating immersive worlds and experiences in media and entertainment, and outfit curation for retailers”.

Silverlake Axis maintains AI and machine learning technologies are being widely used in the banking sector to automate routine tasks and improve customer experiences, which Silverlake Axis is addressing this with its new “CloudLink” solution. Silverlake Axis is a Malaysia-based provider of software services to ASEAN banks, serving 40% of the 20 largest ASEAN banks.

Outside the top 150 by trading turnover this year, Grand Venture Technology (GVT) reported on 15 Nov its 9MFY23 revenue declined 18% from 9MFY22, to S$82.4 million, largely due to a decrease in business activity in the back-end semiconductor segment and the electronics segment. GVT is covered by DBS Group research under the Research Talent Development Grant Scheme which aims to groom talent to expand research coverage of small-mid cap SGX listed companies. The most recent report by DBS Group Research noted that GVT’s YoY declines in semiconductor shipments are progressively narrowing since May 2023 and MoM changes have turned positive since March 2023. The report further noted it expects an uptrend in semiconductor shipments, which will be driven by inventory correction, AI, and high-performance computing. GVT also noted that it is cautiously optimistic of a gradual improvement in operating conditions from 2024, with more pronounced uptick in the second half of 2024 to be driven by global semiconductor demand for innovations in AI and high-performance computing, and the need for inventory replenishment.

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Originally Posted November 27, 2023 – Chips Fuel October Rebound in Singapore Manufacturing Growth