Asset Classes

Free investment financial education

Language

Multilingual content from IBKR

Close Navigation
Learn more about IBKR accounts
Stocks Drop On September 30 – The Fun Has Merely Begun

Stocks Drop On September 30 – The Fun Has Merely Begun

Posted October 1, 2021 at 12:42 am
Michael Kramer
Mott Capital Management

Stocks – AMZN, AAPL, DIS, FDX

Macro – SPY, QQQ, VIX

Michael Kramer and the clients of Mott Capital own AAPL.

S&P 500 (SPY)

It’s a pretty bad day for stocks, with the S&P 500 falling by about 1.2% to finish the month down 4.7%. The market doesn’t look all that healthy, but then again, it hasn’t looked healthy for weeks, maybe months. It seems like at this point; we are in the middle of wave three down. We will need to confirm this by falling below 4,300 tomorrow. If so, I see a move to 4,240 at a minimum and could be as steep as 4,115.

But here’s the problem, at 4,115, if that does come into play, the S&P 500 would be trading for a stunning 19.3 times its next-twelve-months earnings estimates. A still very pricey multiple. If I had my way, I would like to see the index settle at and trade for something like 17 times NTM estimates, or 3,600. I think 17 is a good PE for the market, given where growth rates are going and the low rate world. We have to hope that earnings estimates hold up and don’t start coming down.

S&P 500

VIX (VIX)

Despite today’s drop, the VIX hardly increased, rising just 2.5% to 23.1. Indeed, not a sign of any fear being built into the market yet. It could be an indication that serious selling hasn’t even begun. If you start to get a VIX that can go up in an orderly manner instead of those significant 20% one-day jumps, you could see a market that moves much lower over time.

VIX

Nasdaq (QQQ)

Meanwhile, the Qs have been consolidating and forming a bear flag, which was present in the S&P 500 futures this morning before it broke. The pattern would suggest the Qs fall back to $346.

Nasdaq

Apple (AAPL)

The chart for Apple looks pretty weak, and it should break support at $141 and start its drop to the low $130s.

Apple

Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon looks pretty bad too, with a break of support at $3,300 and a negative sloping RSI, the stock’s next stop will probably be $3200.

Amazon

Disney (DIS)

Disney is very close to falling below support at $168, and with a giant gap to fill at $154, it is not looking good.

Disney

FedEx (FDX)

The disaster, also known as FedEx, keeps on dropping with no end in sight. It could still have a considerable distance to fall, too, with $180 the most suitable spot.

FedEx

Originally Posted on September 30, 2021 – Stocks Drop On September 30 – The Fun Has Merely Begun

Disclosure: Mott Capital Management

Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circumstances.

Mott Capital Management has entered into a Portfolio Manager License Agreement with Interactive Advisors pursuant to which it provides trading data IA uses to offer a portfolio to its investment advisory clients.  Mott Capital Management is not affiliated with any entities in the Interactive Brokers Group.  

Interactive Advisors is an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC.

Pursuant to the Investment Management Agreement between Interactive Advisors and its clients, all brokerage transactions occur through Interactive Brokers LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Advisors. The use of an affiliate for brokerage services represents a potential conflict of interest as Interactive Brokers LLC is paid a commission on trades executed on behalf of Interactive Advisors. Interactive Brokers LLC does not consider this conflict material as it does not sell, solicit, recommend, trade against or otherwise attempt to induce Interactive Advisors to place any orders in any products. Interactive Advisors does not offer services through any other broker-dealer.  All trading by Interactive Advisors is self-directed. Interactive Advisors clients acknowledge this potential conflict of interest and authorize Interactive Advisors to execute transactions through Interactive Brokers LLC when they open an Interactive Advisors account. Clients should consider the commissions and other expenses, execution, clearance, and settlement capabilities of Interactive Brokers LLC as a factor in their decision to invest in an Interactive Advisors Portfolio. Interactive Advisors believes it satisfies its best execution obligation by trading its clients’ trades through Interactive Brokers LLC. While there can be no assurance that it will in fact achieve best execution, Interactive Advisors does periodically monitor the execution quality of transactions to ensure that clients receive the best overall trade execution pursuant to regulatory requirements.

Disclosure: Interactive Brokers

Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Mott Capital Management and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Mott Capital Management and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

IBKR Campus Newsletters

This website uses cookies to collect usage information in order to offer a better browsing experience. By browsing this site or by clicking on the "ACCEPT COOKIES" button you accept our Cookie Policy.