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Stocks Rise on November 16 Despite The Surging Dollar

Stocks Rise on November 16 Despite The Surging Dollar

Posted November 16, 2021 at 10:59 pm
Michael Kramer
Mott Capital Management

Stocks – PYPL, ROKU, DIS

Macro – SPY, DXY, FXE, FXY

The S&P 500 finished higher by 39 bps to close just below the previous all-time high. The dollar index moved higher again, this time by more than 40 bps to close at 95.92.

S&P 500 (SPY)

My wave count for the S&P 500 was almost destroyed, but it managed to hold on. Yesterday, I noted that it was possible that wave B may have corrected too much of wave A and that we would worry about it later. Today’s price action confirmed my suspicions, with the futures nearly reaching the highs of November; however, it failed to overtake those highs. If this is to stick tomorrow, then what was completed was not a wave B but a wave 2. If we rally tomorrow, then the whole concept is broken, but if we drop, we should see it extend to around 4,575 over the next few days, and then more after that. We will wait for tomorrow for confirmation.

S&P 500 Futures


The euro has gone into a full meltdown mode, and I don’t see it stopping until it gets into the 1.11s.



The dollar is also breaking out against the Yen and can probably climb to around 118.


Roku (ROKU)

The chart for ROKU doesn’t look all that encouraging. Sure, its RSI is hovering around 30, but it probably needs one big flush down before there is a short-term rebound on its otherwise long-term deflating stock price. A drop to $228 would likely set the stock up for a nice short-term rebound.


PayPal (PYPL)

PayPal was up some today, and it looks like that gap is starting to get filled.


Disney (DIS)

There was a lot of heavy options betting in Disney yesterday, and it looks the stock is trying to bottom here around $157. It is enough to make me think that we will likely see a rebound back to $168 to $170 over the near term.


Originally Posted on November 16, 2021 – Stocks Rise on November 16 Despite The Surging Dollar

Disclosure: Mott Capital Management

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