Wholesale Inflation Shatters Estimates: Oct. 11, 2023

Equity markets are mixed this morning as investors assume that the Fed is done hiking interest rates this cycle. This optimism occurs even as wholesale inflation data this morning shattered expectations. Later this afternoon, meanwhile, we’ll receive minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting, which may provide additional details regarding committee members’ perspectives. Market players are behaving cautiously against this backdrop, which includes uncertainties regarding the Middle East conflict and a looming vote for Speaker of the House of Representatives that will influence congressional negotiations.

Producer Prices Leap Higher

Wholesale prices as reflected by the September Producer Price Index (PPI) rose a whopping 0.5% month-over-month (m/m), soaring past the consensus estimate of 0.3%. September’s result slowed from August’s 0.7% rate, however, as energy cost increases moderated. When excluding food and energy, the core figure rose 0.3% m/m, above projections calling for an unchanged growth rate from August’s 0.2%. The m/m beats led to significant upside in the year-over-year (y/y) figures, with headline prices rising 2.2% y/y while core items increased 2.7% y/y, both handily above the anticipation of 1.6% and 2.3%.

Capital Markets Are Mixed

Markets are cautiously awaiting this afternoon’s release of Fed minutes with mixed action across stocks, bonds and currencies. For equities, tech is leading while cyclicals are lagging as the Nasdaq Composite, Dow Jones Industrial and S&P 500 indices gain 0.4%, 0.2% and 0.1%. The small-cap Russell 2000 Index is down 0.3% meanwhile. Most sectors are higher, however, except for energy, health care and consumer staples which are down 2%, 0.8% and 0.6%. Bonds are mixed with yields on the short-end generally higher while the long-end and the dollar slip. The 2-year Treasury is up 3 basis points (bps) to 5.01% while the 10-year is down 6 bps to 4.6%. The Dollar Index is down a modest 10 bps as the greenback depreciates relative to major euro currencies, namely the pound sterling, franc and euro. It is appreciating versus the yuan, yen, and Canadian and Aussie dollars, however. Crude oil is continuing its decline with WTI down a significant $2.37 or 2.76% to $83.54 per barrel on lower global growth forecasts. The IMF lowered its 2024 GDP growth forecast for China, the world’s largest oil importer, from 4.5% to 4.2% as tighter monetary policy and deleveraging weigh upon the country’s economy.

Hamas and Israel War Spark Energy Fears

As the conflict between Hamas and Israel continues, investors are analyzing the impact of the crisis on energy prices and the consequence of other countries within the oil-rich Gulf region potentially being pulled into the conflict. President Joe Biden has pledged to provide support to Israel and has directed various Navy ships, including the USS Ford aircraft carrier to the region. Biden has also increased fighter jets in the area. The U.S. is also expected to send munitions to Israel. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, meanwhile, says the U.S. hasn’t ruled out embargos of oil from Iran, which has stated that it supports the Hamas actions. A third of global energy supplies lie in the area, with potential supply disruptions likely to push oil prices much higher. 

House Turmoil Lingers

The House of Representatives may vote today on a proposal to increase the number of required votes for approving a House speaker from 111 to 217, which would be a House majority. Representative Jim Jordan and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise are in the running for the position. Earlier today, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who was ousted from the position after forging a deal with the White House for a temporary spending measure, said there’s a “good chance” that the House will select a new leader today. Much is at stake with a strongly polarized Congress having to pass a budget before a 45-day temporary spending resolution expires on November 17 in order to avert a government shutdown. Meanwhile, proposals to increase aid to Israel may make it harder to provide Ukraine with funding, as budget hawks seek to curtail spending.

AUW Starts Mack Trucks Strike

Concerns about an increasing number of labor conflicts intensified recently when the United Auto Workers Union, which is already striking against the nation’s three largest automakers, started a strike against Mack Trucks. Among the union’s 4,000 members employed at Mack Trucks’ Pennsylvania location, 73% voted in favor of rejecting the company’s proposal to increase wages by about 19% and to provide a $3,000 ratification bonus. Meanwhile losses to the largest three car companies are continuing with the Anderson Economic Group estimating the first three weeks of the strikes have cost about $5.5 billion. Those losses included lost wages, losses to automakers and suppliers, and losses to dealers. 

Consumer Price Index to Provide Additional Insight on Inflation

As we look ahead to tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index, market players are unlikely to take a stronger-than-expected figure lightly. I’m expecting a 0.4% increase, led by rising food and gasoline costs. Persistent services inflation and rising prices for used and new automobiles will likely contribute to upside risks as well. A 0.4% gain in the CPI is unlikely to catapult the Fed toward another hike, but a number of greater magnitude against the backdrop of recent big beats on payrolls and the PPI may lay the case for one more. 

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