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S&P500 (ES) Retesting 50% Fib Retrace of Aug-Oct Slide

S&P500 (ES) Retesting 50% Fib Retrace of Aug-Oct Slide

Posted November 22, 2022
Darren Chu
Tradable Patterns

The S&P500 (ES) spent the past week consolidating mostly between the 50% and 61.8% Fib retrace of the August to October slide.  A daily close above the psychologically key 4k whole figure level and 61.8% Fib would dramatically increase the likelihood of ES reclaiming the September high by month end.  Odds are decent for the current Dead Cat Bounce to reach downchannel resistance (on the weekly chart) by year end.  Renewed short covering could trigger with Wednesday’s US flash services PMI or with the FOMC meeting minutes.  The escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict deserves close monitoring.  Congratulations to paying subscribers who benefited from the February 18, 2020 analysis one day before the record high in the ES, warning of the pending slide in the S&P500.  The weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains.  I am looking to enter long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for Monday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).  Click here for analysis on NASDAQ100, SILVER

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Source: Interactive Brokers TWS

Sample of Today’s Top 3 Trades Available to Free Subscribers (published Apr 14, 2021

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