For most of the past 12 months, short-term US interest rates have exceeded the 10-year US treasury note yield by over one full percentage point, with 1-month T-bills currently yielding over 5.3%, versus around 4.3% for 10-year fixed rate notes. This “inverted yield curve” implies the market expects short-term rates to decline, this signal seemed “early” for most of the past year, and sustained high US rates are one likely reason the US dollar remains relatively strong against many other major currencies.
In this educational webinar, 26-year market veteran Tariq Dennison explains what drives interest rates, bond prices and yields, and currency exchange rates up and down, and possible scenarios for where bond and FX markets might go next. Tariq then explains how he uses CME’s new micro ultra treasury note, micro ultra bond, and currency futures to capture these possible moves.
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from CME Group and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or CME Group and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Disclosure: Futures Trading
Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com.
Disclosure: Forex
There is a substantial risk of loss in foreign exchange trading. The settlement date of foreign exchange trades can vary due to time zone differences and bank holidays. When trading across foreign exchange markets, this may necessitate borrowing funds to settle foreign exchange trades. The interest rate on borrowed funds must be considered when computing the cost of trades across multiple markets.
Disclosure: Exchange-traded notes
Exchange-traded notes (ETNs) are unsecured debt subject to the issuer's credit risk; ETNs do not provide an ownership interest in any underlying assets. Many ETNs are intended for short-term trading and may not be appropriate for intermediate- or long-term investment time horizons. ETNs may be thinly traded, can become illiquid, and may trade at a market price significantly different (a premium or discount) from their indicative value. ETNs may exhibit extreme market price movements, which can occur quickly and unexpectedly. Some ETNs are callable or redeemable by the issuer before their stated maturity date. In the event of early redemption, you are likely to lose all or a part of your initial investment. The tax treatment of ETNs is uncertain and may vary from what is described in the prospectus.