By J.C. Parets & All Star Charts
1/ Software Finds Support
2/ A Weaker Yuan Signals Trouble Ahead
3/ Energy Takes the Lead
4/ Bitcoin’s Volatility Shrinks
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1/ Software Finds Support
Tech stocks rebounded in a big way Monday, led by strength from groups like software and semiconductors. After a few weeks of corrective action, we’re taking a close look at all the potential reversal patterns that are in place. Some of them have failed during the recent sell-off.
Software is one of the largest and most important industry groups in the U.S. stock market and economy. Here is a daily chart of the SPDR S&P Software ETF (XSW):
After resolving higher from a clean reversal pattern and reclaiming the anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) from all-time highs (blue line), XSW has retraced to the breakout level of its base. As long as these year-to-date and August highs near $130 hold, the path of least resistance remains higher.
However, if sellers take control and force prices back into their old range, we’re likely looking at more sideways action for software stocks. When we look around the tech sector, we see more of these reversal formations holding than failing for now.
2/ A Weaker Yuan Signals Trouble Ahead
The major U.S. stock market averages are turning lower as tech names correct.
While seasonality and logical overhead supply justify a corrective period for U.S. stocks, foreign exchange (FX) markets suggest that a deeper pullback in price could be in the cards.
Check out the overlay chart of the Chinese yuan (CNY) and the S&P 500 ETF (SPY):
The S&P 500 and the yuan tend to follow the same path. This is largely due to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and its control of the Chinese yuan.
The PBOC sets a fixed rate for the yuan every morning. The recent decline in the yuan indicates that the Chinese government is devaluing its currency to dampen the effects of an imminent economic downturn.
Recessionary fears remain pure speculation at this point. Regardless, global equities—including U.S. stocks—will likely suffer if the second largest economy in the world enters a recession.
3/ Energy Takes the Lead
As the year’s second half progresses, rotation into value-oriented sectors becomes more pronounced.
This is especially true when it comes to energy.
The chart below shows the Energy Sector (XLE) relative to Large-Cap Growth (IWF) printing fresh three-month highs:
As you can see, after roughly eight months of underperforming, XLE is back in the driver’s seat as it completes a bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern versus IWF.
Notice that momentum had been diverging positively since May and more recently reached overbought conditions, supporting the trend reversal in favor of energy stocks.
Not only does this suggest that energy could be the place to be in the back half of the year, but it reflects the healthy rotation that continues to pump fresh life into the bull market.
4/ Bitcoin’s Volatility Shrinks
Bitcoin’s (BTC/USD) volatility has taken a lengthy snooze, with the daily Bollinger Bandwidth dropping to its lowest level in history.
These periods of volatility contraction are often followed by a dramatic move in either direction, which tends to set the tone for the short-term trend.
When markets hit extreme lows in volatility, it is only a matter of time before buyers and sellers arrive to shake things back up. The question is simply which direction the coming expansion in volatility will take.
We think a strong move in BTC could be imminent, so we’re watching closely over the next few days for clues about where cryptocurrency markets head next. If Bitcoin can manage to reclaim $30k, the path of least resistance is higher.
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Originally posted 14th August 2023
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