Today is Friday — the Friday after Thanksgiving. That means participation will be limited and trading volume should be extremely light. It also means the stock market will close early at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Of course, the Friday after Thanksgiving also means it is Black Friday, which is why the business media are going to be paying a lot of attention to the retail industry.
The market has already paid its fair share of attention to the retail stocks, many of which have reported quarterly results and have provided guidance in recent weeks. Accordingly, it is a bit of a mystery in terms of how the retail stocks will fare today with the news spotlight cast on them.
What we know at the moment is that the equity futures market is looking like the Friday after Thanksgiving, which is to say that it is not being governed with a great deal of conviction.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up two points and are trading fractionally above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are flat and are trading in-line with fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 45 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.
NVIDIA (NVDA), which was a focal point in Wednesday’s trading following its earnings report, is a focal point again today with Reuters reporting the company is going to delay its China AI chip. Shares of NVDA are down 0.5% in pre-market action.
That weakness is weighing on the broader market, but it hasn’t been a market mover per se.
There is little conviction this morning, which runs counter to the conviction shown at dining tables across the country yesterday and what should be seen today in shopping locales across the country.
Elsewhere, Israel and Hamas are expected to begin a four-day pause in fighting today as part of a hostage/prisoner release deal, Japan reported a 3.3% year-over-year increase in CPI for October, up from 3.0% in September, and Turkey’s central bank raised its policy rate 500 basis points to 40.0%.
The economic releases on this Friday after Thanksgiving will be limited to the preliminary November S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global US Services PMI reports at 9:45 a.m. ET.
The 2-yr note yield is up four basis points to 4.94% and the 10-yr note yield is up six basis points to 4.48% in another market that will be thinly traded on this Friday after Thanksgiving.
—
Originally Posted October 24, 2023 – Conviction lacking on the Friday after Thanksgiving
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from Briefing.com and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Briefing.com and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Join The Conversation
If you have a general question, it may already be covered in our FAQs. If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.