![[Gamma] Scalping Please](https://ibkrcampus.com/wp-content/smush-webp/2024/04/tir-featured-8-700x394.jpg.webp "[Gamma] Scalping Please")
STOCKS – AMD, NVDA
MACRO – SPY, RATES
Stocks fell today, despite trying to rally as rates and the dollar pushed higher. The job report tomorrow will drive what happens next and based on a lot of different data, I think those forecasts of 250,000 news jobs may prove low. Those ISM data points have shown three solid months of improvement in the service industry and suggest an improving labor market, not softening. Additionally, the BLS job report has beaten consensus estimates every month since October 2021, except for March and April of this year, and the April miss was by a small margin.
Of course, tomorrow can be the day that NFP comes in below estimates because I am pointing it out. But again, all one can do is analyze the data and form an opinion based on it. So that has allowed me to believe that the jobs data will be better than expected and potentially significantly better than expected.
2-Yr
The 2-Year appears to be breaking out as well, suggesting there may be more upside for rates to come. The 2-yr is flirting with the 4.25% level, and should that level be cleared, then it has a lot of room to run higher.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has formed one of my diamond patterns. If that is correct, the index is set for a pretty significant drop back to the origin of the rally and suggests a reversal of all the gains and potentially undercut the September low.
AMD (AMD)
AMD pre-announced revenue numbers after the close, showing sales of about $5.6 billion vs estimates of $6.7 billion. That is a huge miss, more than 16%. It is no different than Nvidia when it gave that horrible guidance, and it really should not come as a surprise. Even Micron cited it had a big slowdown in PC sales when it reported, I think it was last week? It feels as if Micron reported ages ago, but I think it was last week. Anyway, the point is, there was no way AMD was immune, and that is probably why the stock has been crushed. Now could it fall further, sure? But really, it all depends on that support level at $61. Once that support goes, this stock has no support, from what I can see, until the upper $40’s.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Nvidia is also trading lower after hours on the AMD news, and I have no idea why this stock holds up, so well. I guess what I am wondering now is if the sector has deteriorated further since Nvidia gave that guidance in mid-August. My guess is it has, and if it has, it probably comes on the gaming side, and if that data center side goes, watch out. For now, the stock stalled out at $131, and support comes at $117.
–
Originally Posted on 6th October – Stocks Fall Ahead Of The Make Or Break Job Report
Disclosure: Mott Capital Management
Mott Capital Management is the portfolio manager for one portfolio offered by Interactive Advisors. Interactive Advisors clients do not invest directly with the Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management, and the Managers do not have discretionary trading authority over Interactive Advisors client accounts. The Portfolio Managers on the Interactive Advisors platform simply license their trade data to Interactive Advisors, which then allows its clients to have the same strategy and trading decisions mirrored in their accounts if the Portfolio is in line with their risk score. Portfolio Managers like Mott Capital Management implement their trading philosophy and strategy without knowing the identity of Interactive Advisors’ clients or taking into account these clients’ individualized circumstances.
Mott Capital Management has entered into a Portfolio Manager License Agreement with Interactive Advisors pursuant to which it provides trading data IA uses to offer a portfolio to its investment advisory clients. Mott Capital Management is not affiliated with any entities in the Interactive Brokers Group.
Interactive Advisors is an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC.
Pursuant to the Investment Management Agreement between Interactive Advisors and its clients, all brokerage transactions occur through Interactive Brokers LLC, an affiliate of Interactive Advisors. The use of an affiliate for brokerage services represents a potential conflict of interest as Interactive Brokers LLC is paid a commission on trades executed on behalf of Interactive Advisors. Interactive Brokers LLC does not consider this conflict material as it does not sell, solicit, recommend, trade against or otherwise attempt to induce Interactive Advisors to place any orders in any products. Interactive Advisors does not offer services through any other broker-dealer. All trading by Interactive Advisors is self-directed. Interactive Advisors clients acknowledge this potential conflict of interest and authorize Interactive Advisors to execute transactions through Interactive Brokers LLC when they open an Interactive Advisors account. Clients should consider the commissions and other expenses, execution, clearance, and settlement capabilities of Interactive Brokers LLC as a factor in their decision to invest in an Interactive Advisors Portfolio. Interactive Advisors believes it satisfies its best execution obligation by trading its clients’ trades through Interactive Brokers LLC. While there can be no assurance that it will in fact achieve best execution, Interactive Advisors does periodically monitor the execution quality of transactions to ensure that clients receive the best overall trade execution pursuant to regulatory requirements.
Disclosure: Interactive Brokers
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from Mott Capital Management and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Mott Capital Management and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
