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S&P500 (ES) Reverses Half of Aug-Oct Slide

S&P500 (ES) Reverses Half of Aug-Oct Slide

Posted October 31, 2022
Darren Chu
Tradable Patterns

The S&P500 (ES) is consolidating after closing October at its high, catching its breath as it tests the 50% Fib retrace of the August to October slide.  Regardless of any deeper pullback this week towards last week’s low, ES appears poised for upside in its Dead Cat Bounce towards the psychologically key 4k whole figure level in the next week or so.  Nevertheless, the bear rally will likely be weaker in magnitude relative to the late June-late August one, with only a moderate probability of testing downchannel resistance (on the weekly chart) sometime in November.  Watch for volatility as early as today 10am EST following the US ISM manufacturing and JOLTS job opening data.  The news onslaught continues Wednesday with the US ADP non-farm employment change, FOMC/Fed Funds rate and FOMC conference, Thursday with the US ISM services PMI, and Friday with the highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).  The escalation in the Ukraine-Russia conflict deserves close monitoring.  Congratulations to paying subscribers who benefited from the February 18, 2020 analysis one day before the record high in the ES, warning of the pending slide in the S&P500.  The weekly and daily RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains.  I am looking to enter long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for Monday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).  Click here for analysis on NASDAQ100, SILVER 

Source: Interactive Brokers TWS

Sample of Today’s Top 3 Trades Available to Free Subscribers (published Apr 14, 2021

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