There Is Microsoft And Then There Is A Subdued Market

The futures for the major indices are trading higher, yet we wouldn’t go so far as to suggest there is a bullish bias driving things. There is a clear Microsoft (MSFT) bias that is bullish. That stock is up 8.6% but that move hasn’t necessarily translated into a stampede by the bulls after yesterday’s poor showing by the stock market.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 12 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 137 points and are trading 1.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 59 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value.

Bear in mind, too (no pun intended), that Alphabet (GOOG) topped the consensus EPS estimate and announced a $70 billion share buyback authorization, and that Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Texas Instruments (TXN), Visa (V), Humana (HUM), and PacWest Bancorp (PACW) also reported pleasing earnings news.

Dow component Boeing (BA) came up shy of Q1 consensus earnings estimates, but pleased investors by reaffirming its FY23 outlook and announcing increased production plans for its 737 program. Shares of BA are up 2.1%.

The overarching point is that the overall body of earnings reporting work for the March quarter since yesterday’s close has been quite good, yet the overall reaction has been quite subdued. Take Microsoft out of the equation and the equity futures for the major indices would look quite anemic.

We’ll have to see how this plays out when the cash market opens for trading. That is, will the road rise to meet Microsoft or will the road just be filled with dips and bumps while Microsoft rises well above it?

One stock that is certainly hitting a pothole is Activision (ATVI). It is down 10% after the UK’s CMA blocked Microsoft’s deal to acquire Activision, saying it would substantially weaken competition. Microsoft and Activision plan to fight that ruling.

Separately, concerns about the U.S. economy weakening substantially continue to fester. Those concerns were evident in the Treasury market yesterday and they have not been tempered to any great extent today despite the generally good earnings news. The 2-yr note yield, which dropped 18 basis points yesterday, is down another three basis points this morning to 3.92%. The 10-yr note yield, which fell 12 basis points yesterdays, is up just one basis point to 3.41%.

Today’s moves were largely established before the March Durable Goods Orders Report was released at 8:30 a.m. ET, but we can see why sellers of Treasuries have kept mostly to the sidelines after that report.

Total durable goods orders were up a robust 3.2% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus +0.7%), powered by a 78.4% increase in new orders for nondefense aircraft and parts. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose a more modest 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%).

The key takeaway from the report, though, is that nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft — a proxy for business spending — declined 0.4% in March following a 0.7% decline in February.

The equity futures market had a relatively muted response to the data, which is in keeping with its overall disposition excluding Microsoft.

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Originally Posted April 26, 2023 – There is Microsoft and then there is a subdued market