Traders' Insight
Posted on: August 25, 2022
Can “Goldilocks in a Suit” Keep the Bears Away?
The long-awaited Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, kicks off today. Coming near the end of summer, it usually becomes a focus for investors during a slow news cycle.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: June 15, 2022
Can Goldilocks in a Suit Pull a Houdini?
Markets are nervously awaiting the results of the latest FOMC meeting at 2PM Eastern Time today and the subsequent press conference with Chairman Powell. Every Fed meeting promises to be consequential, but today’s comes amid one of the most turbulent times in recent memory.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: January 12, 2022
Goldilocks in a Suit or Sully Sullenberger?
Fed Chair Jerome Powell worked his magic once again yesterday, but his testimony was part of a job interview.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: August 30, 2021
Goldilocks is a 68-Year-Old Man in a Suit
In his kickoff address to the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell played the role of Goldilocks and markets loved his portrayal.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: November 17, 2023
Goldilocks or Dorothy?
…I wonder if a simple country girl from Kansas might be the more appropriate market metaphor these days … “The Wizard of Oz”, the movie gets a happy ending when Dorothy simply clicks her heels together and repeats the phrase “there’s no place like home” until she magically returns to her farm … If enough of us click our heels together and repeat “soft landing, soft landing, soft landing…”, will one magically appear?
Traders' Insight
Posted on: July 27, 2023
Goldilocks Plays Hamlet
I’m sure that some of you have tired of my repeated description of Fed Chair Powell as “Goldilocks in a Suit.” That said, in the immediate aftermath of his press conference, it occurred to me that a different fictional character better described the Chair’s performance.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: December 1, 2022
Goldilocks Returns
By now, you likely know that Federal Reserve Chair Powell spoke at 1:30 EST yesterday, and that his comments spurred a massive rally. Traders seemed to love his commentary, with major equity indices rising by 3-4%. The question is why?
Traders' Insight
Posted on: September 19, 2022
Goldilocks Or Gorilla?
There’s a 500-pound gorilla in the markets. Oddly, it’s the same person that I’ve frequently called Goldilocks over recent months.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: August 29, 2022
Goldilocks Feeds the Bears
It became painfully apparent that Mr. Powell no longer wanted to be accused of any ambiguity. In a terse eight-minute speech, he made it abundantly clear that fighting inflation was the Fed’s number one consideration, maybe its only consideration.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: August 26, 2022
Goldilocks: “Stop Doubting My Resolve to Cool the Porridge”
One of the most eagerly awaited speeches in recent market memory is now behind us. At the time of writing, after some early gyrations, stocks are now broadly lower in response to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s relatively forceful comments.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: May 5, 2022
Goldilocks or Kobe Bryant?
The market’s immediate reaction to Chairman Powell’s press conference was exuberant, with 3% jumps in major US indices in the final 90 minutes of the day.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: July 28, 2022
Yay, We Might Be in a Recession!
Goldilocks in a Suit struck again yesterday. Using his particular skill at moderating his comments, he dished out economic porridge that was just right.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: March 20, 2024
What Options Markets Expect for Today’s FOMC Meeting
This afternoon we have the most highly anticipated FOMC meeting since, well, the last one six weeks ago. Today’s activity will be driven primarily by traders’ interpretation of Chair Powell’s demeanor, and the newest “dot plot.”
Traders' Insight
Posted on: December 12, 2023
We’ve Got a Monetary Bridge to Sell You…
Will a “monetary bridge” be a long one? Will it span troubled waters? And will Chair Powell play Goldilocks or Grinch on Wednesday? Andrew Wilkinson, IBKR’s director of education discusses these topics and more with Steve Sosnick, chief strategist, and Jose Torres, senior economist.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: November 1, 2023
Another Month, Another FOMC Meeting
As we began another month, on a “binary number” day (1101), we had much to look forward to. We could expect key announcements from the Treasury and Federal Reserve, along with a host of economic reports.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: September 18, 2023
Looking Ahead to Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting
Some of us rarely stop thinking about the Federal Reserve (ugh), so even two days prior, it’s not too soon to consider what might occur during and after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: August 24, 2023
Keeping Inflation Down in the (Jackson) Hole
We came into this week with two major “known unknowns” on everyone’s radar. The first was Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report, the second is Chair Powell’s address to the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole conference.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: June 28, 2023
Four Central Bankers Aren’t Enough to Sink the Market
Many of us just finished listening to a panel discussion with the heads of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BOE), and Bank of Japan (BOJ).
Traders' Insight
Posted on: June 14, 2023
Last Minute Thoughts Ahead of the FOMC Meeting
Unless you’ve been completely devoid of financial news over the past few weeks, you should be well aware that there is an FOMC announcement scheduled for 2PM EDT today with a press conference to follow a half-hour later.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: June 13, 2023
I Don’t Want to Spoil the CPI Party
We had a potential market-moving force this morning in the form of CPI, but the in-line report was clearly not enough to disrupt the positive motion of US equities.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: May 3, 2023
What to Expect When You’re Expecting the Fed – May 2023 Edition
This afternoon we hope to learn quite a bit about the state of interest rates with the FOMC rate announcement and Chairman Powell’s press conference. The options market expects good things to follow.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: March 1, 2023
Disinflation is Transitory
Another day, another higher-than-expected inflation report. Today’s eye-catcher was the ISM Prices Paid report for February, coming in at 51.3, well above both expectations of 46.5 and last month’s 44.5.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: January 4, 2023
Some Highlights and Lowlights of 2022 – Part 2
As we start 2023 and I take a week off, it seems like an opportune time to look back at our best and worst calls of the second half of 2022.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: March 21, 2022
VIX Closer to “All Clear” While Bonds Get Nervous
Bullish investors would love to view last week’s equity rally as a key turning point after nearly three months of declines. It’s not clear that bond markets agree.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: January 26, 2022
What to Expect When You’re Expecting the FOMC (January 2022 Edition)
One thing that some equity investors expect is that the Fed will take the recent equity market volatility into account. Sorry, but I don’t see that happening.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: November 4, 2021
Did ADP Give A Clue For Non-Farm Payrolls? Does It Matter?
Yesterday morning, somewhat lost amongst the pre-FOMC anticipation, the ADP Employment Change statistics were released.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: January 29, 2024
Economic Update: January 29, 2024
Weekly Economic Update for the week of January 29, 2024: growth, jobs, profits, inflation, rates, risks, and investment themes.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: January 22, 2024
Economic Update: January 22, 2024
Weekly Economic Update for the week of January 22, 2024: growth, jobs, profits, inflation, rates, risks, and investment themes.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: January 16, 2024
Economic Update: January 15, 2024
Weekly Economic Update for the week of January 16, 2024: growth, jobs, profits, inflation, rates, risks, and investment themes.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: January 8, 2024
Economic Update: January 8, 2024
Weekly Economic Update for the week of January 8, 2024: growth, jobs, profits, inflation, rates, risks, and investment themes.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: December 15, 2023
Powell Spikes the Punch
The Fed is said to be in the position of the chaperone who ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up. Rather than taking the punch bowl away on Wednesday, Jerome Powell not only refilled it, but threw in some extra intoxicants for good measure.
Traders' Insight
Posted on: August 17, 2023
Might Correlation be the Key to Understanding VIX?
For the latest IBKR Podcast, Mandy Xu, VP and head of derivatives markets intelligence at Cboe, joins Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at IBKR, to discuss these topics and much, much more.
